The IATA is forecasting record profits for airlines next year, but there is one problem the industry cannot outfly. A global pilot shortage is building, and the pipeline isn’t filling fast enough to replace the wave of retirements coming due.
The IATA expects industry revenue to hit roughly $1.05 trillion in 2026, helped by stable fuel prices and rising passenger demand. But the group also warned that labor and maintenance costs are climbing, partly because aircraft deliveries from Airbus $EADSY ( ▲ 1.27% ) and Boeing $BA ( ▲ 3.16% ) remain slow and pilots are getting harder to find.
The strain is already hitting airlines on the ground. India’s largest carrier has been forced into widespread cancellations after adjusting schedules to comply with new rest rules for pilots, exposing how thin staffing has become.
The issue traces back to the pandemic, which froze training pipelines and pushed many pilots into early retirement. Now a significant share of licensed pilots in the US is approaching the mandatory retirement age of 65, and regulators recently rejected a proposal to extend it to 67. Younger cohorts entering the profession aren’t large enough to keep pace.
Despite the industry returning to pre-pandemic employment levels, the math still doesn’t work. Boeing estimates the world will need roughly 660,000 new pilots over the next two decades to meet demand. One possible future: autonomous aircraft. Boston-based Merlin is betting its tech can step in where human pilots are increasingly hard to find.