Alaska Airlines $ALK ( ▲ 4.11% ) reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results after the bell Thursday, but the market focused on forward guidance, sending shares down about 2% in after-hours trading.
Q4 earnings beat, but the stock still fell
The quarter itself was strong:
Adjusted EPS: $0.43 vs. $0.11 expected
Q4 passenger revenue: $3.25B, up 2% YoY
So this wasn’t an execution issue. It was a guidance issue.
2026 outlook came in light
For Q1, Alaska guided:
Capacity growth: +1% to +2%
Adjusted EPS: -$1.50 to -$0.50
Analysts expected an adjusted loss of about -$0.77, so the range spooked investors.
For full-year 2026, Alaska forecast:
EPS: $3.50 to $6.50
Midpoint: $5.00
That midpoint misses the Street’s $5.52 estimate.
They basically said “we need the economy to cooperate”
Alaska made it clear that hitting the high end of guidance depends on external factors like:
sustained macro recovery through 2026
trends holding from the first three weeks of the year
fuel prices stabilizing
Translation: they’re not confident enough to promise the upside.
Big expansion plans, premium push continues
Earlier this month Alaska placed its biggest plane order ever, locking in 110 Boeing $BA jets to fuel international growth.
New routes planned for this summer include:
Rome
London
Iceland
They’re also increasing premium seat offerings, leaning into the same “K-shaped economy” travel trend we’ve been seeing across airlines where higher-end demand holds up better than budget travel.