Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 0.23% ) is coming off its strongest quarter ever, thanks to a final surge of buyers rushing to secure the federal EV tax credit. That boost pushed deliveries and revenue to all-time highs. Now the question is how steep the pullback will be.
FactSet analysts expect Tesla to deliver 450,000 vehicles in Q4, a 9 percent drop from last year’s 496,000. Bloomberg’s consensus is 448,000, about a 10 percent decline. The most bearish forecast comes from well-known Tesla tracker Troy Teslike, who recently cut his estimate to 406,000 after seeing weaker production and softer demand. That would be an 18 percent year-over-year decline.
Any of those outcomes would mean Tesla posts an annual drop in deliveries at a time when it’s trying hard to distance itself from its identity as just a carmaker.
Market odds echo the skepticism. Event contract pricing shows only a 41 percent chance that Tesla delivers 430,000 or more vehicles this quarter.