Apple Hits 20% Global Smartphone Share in 2025, but Wall Street Says 2026 Is the Real Test

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.34% ) quietly had a monster year in 2025. According to new data from Counterpoint Research, Apple’s global smartphone market share jumped to 20%, edging out Samsung and making the iPhone the No. 1 smartphone brand in the world by shipments.

But if you ask Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, 2026 is where Apple either levels up into the next era or risks being stuck in neutral while everyone else runs the AI playbook.

Ives says Apple can hit Wedbush’s $350 price target in 2026, about a 35% upside from current levels, but only if it stops drifting and executes on a few major strategic moves.

His main point: Apple has the hardware dominance, but the AI strategy has been underwhelming so far and it’s time to pick a lane.

Ives says Apple should make Google $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.0% ) Gemini the exclusive AI partner across its ecosystem.

That matters because Apple’s own AI models have not impressed, and Siri has become the poster child for “promised, delayed, and outdated.”

Bloomberg has previously reported that Apple plans to pay Google roughly $1 billion per year to use Gemini to power Siri, which would be a big signal that Apple is prioritizing execution over pride.

Apple’s biggest AI problem is not ambition. It’s follow-through.

Ives says the revamped Siri expected this spring has to actually deliver what Apple promised years ago: real personalization and deeper system-level integration. Basically, Siri has to stop being a voice assistant that feels stuck in 2016.

He also expects Apple to launch an AI subscription service this summer, which could become a new revenue stream for Apple’s already massive services business.

Apple doesn’t need to reinvent itself overnight. It just needs to protect the one product that funds everything.

Ives thinks 2026 iPhone unit sales can beat current Street estimates. FactSet consensus pegs 2026 sales around 245 million units, compared with about 233 million in 2025.

The biggest levers he highlights:

Translation: Apple can still win just by shipping a must-have device and pushing premium pricing.

This one’s more psychological than financial.

With news reports and prediction markets increasingly pointing to hardware chief John Ternus as the likely successor to Tim Cook, Ives says Apple needs to kill the uncertainty.

His take is that Apple is entering a crucial period where leadership stability matters because the company is trying to design and execute its broader AI strategy. He expects Cook to stay at least through the end of 2027.

Apple already proved it can dominate global smartphones.

Now it has to prove it can dominate AI distribution, too.

Ives is basically calling 2026 Apple’s “prove-it year,” where:

all have to line up if the stock is going to justify its next major leg higher.