A well-followed market strategist is doubling down on a sharply lower price target for bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 3.88% ) , arguing that multiple bearish technical patterns are now lining up at the same time. After a fresh breakdown, he believes the path of least resistance could be significantly lower.
For traders who rely on charts, the warning lights are flashing.
Momentum Indicator Flashes Trouble Again
One key signal cited is a sell trigger from a long-term momentum indicator known as MACD. According to the strategist, this type of monthly signal has appeared only a handful of times in bitcoin’s history, and prior occurrences were followed by steep declines.
With bitcoin already sliding sharply in recent months, the concern is that this signal may be confirming a broader downtrend rather than marking a temporary dip.
A Classic Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Forms
Adding to the bearish case is what technicians call a head-and-shoulders formation. In simple terms, the chart shows a peak, a higher peak, and then a lower peak, with a key support level acting as the “neckline.”
That neckline is now near the mid-$70,000s. A decisive move below it would, in this view, complete the pattern and open the door to a deeper slide. The strategist argues that this setup supports a longer-term downside target near $45,000.
Why One Level Matters Beyond Charts
There is also a market structure angle. The neckline zone overlaps with the average purchase price of a major corporate bitcoin holder, Strategy $MSTR. If bitcoin $BTC were to break well below that area, it could raise concerns about balance sheet pressure and forced selling, which might amplify volatility.
That said, the company has previously taken steps to strengthen its liquidity position, which could reduce the immediate risk of distress-driven sales.
Still, with multiple technical indicators turning negative at once, some analysts believe the burden of proof is now on buyers to defend key support levels. Until then, bearish chart watchers see the risk of another leg lower as very real.