Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 0.86% ) is wobbling near the $70,000 level after a brutal stretch that rattled traders, but at least one Wall Street analyst says the long-term story is still intact. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani reiterated a $150,000 price target for 2026, arguing that the current downturn represents “the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history.”
That is a bold take in a market still licking its wounds.
A Crisis of Confidence, Not Fundamentals
Chhugani described the recent price action as more of a confidence shock than a structural breakdown. In his view, none of the major pillars supporting Bitcoin have cracked. Institutional adoption continues, spot ETFs are established, and large corporate and asset manager backers remain in the picture.
He previously suggested Bitcoin could bottom near the $60,000 zone, roughly around prior cycle highs, before staging a more meaningful recovery later in the cycle.
Liquidations Cool, But Flows Still Matter
Market stress has eased somewhat compared with the worst of the selloff. Crypto liquidations fell to around $344 million over the past 24 hours, a sharp drop from the multibillion-dollar wipeouts seen earlier in the month.
Bitcoin ETFs, however, are still seeing net outflows, though the pace has slowed. Analysts say ETF flows remain one of the most important signals to watch, since sustained outflows would indicate continued institutional deleveraging. Even a stabilization in flows, without strong inflows, could mark a shift in tone.
A Market Stuck Between Support and Resistance
Other researchers point to a clearly defined trading range forming. Strong support appears clustered in the low $60,000s, where long-term holders have accumulated heavily. On the upside, supply thickens near $80,000, where previous rebound attempts have struggled.
At current levels, about 9.3 million Bitcoin are estimated to be underwater, meaning they were bought at higher prices. That is the largest such overhang since early 2023 and represents a significant psychological hurdle, as many recent buyers are now sitting on losses.
For now, the market is balancing between fear and faith. Bulls see a temporary shakeout before another major leg higher. Bears see a crowded trade finally unwinding. The next move may depend less on headlines and more on whether buyers are willing to step in where the last wave tapped out.