Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 2.03% ) is trying to stabilize after a brutal selloff, but analysts say the pain may not be over yet. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani believes the crypto could still be in a short-term bear phase, with a potential bottom forming around the $60,000 level before what he calls a “most consequential” new cycle begins.
That is a scary near-term setup paired with a very big long-term bet.
Not a Dip. A Full-On Crypto Winter
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan did not sugarcoat it, calling the current environment a 2022-style crypto winter driven by excess leverage and heavy profit-taking. In other words, this is not just a routine pullback inside a bull run. It is a full reset in risk appetite.
Short-term traders are also watching key levels closely. Analysts at Bitunix see $80,000 as major resistance that would signal risk capital returning. On the downside, $75,000 is viewed as a critical support zone where the market is testing how much selling pressure it can absorb during ongoing deleveraging.
So far, price action suggests the market is still fragile rather than confidently buying dips.
Why Some See This as the Last Big Opportunity
Despite the gloom, Chhugani argues that this downturn could set the stage for something much bigger. He expects a relatively swift reversal, potentially in the first half of 2026, that establishes a higher base and kicks off a cycle tied to growing institutional and even sovereign-level adoption.
His view is that many investors will treat this crash like prior cycle peaks and walk away. But he believes shifting macro and geopolitical dynamics, along with deeper US institutional alignment, could make this the final major shakeout before Bitcoin $BTC matures into a more widely recognized sovereign-grade asset.
That is a bold call in the middle of a risk-off storm.
Flows Improve, But Conviction Is Questioned
There are early signs of stabilization. Bitcoin ETFs saw $561.8 million in inflows on Monday after nearly $1.5 billion in outflows the prior week. That suggests some capital is tiptoeing back in.
Still, on-chain and trading data tell a cautious story. Glassnode analysts said the pickup in spot volume looks more reactive than confident, reflecting churn during continued downside rather than strong dip buying. Across spot markets, derivatives, ETFs, and blockchain metrics, conditions still point to a broad risk-off regime.
For now, Bitcoin is less a rocket ship and more a stress test for how much risk investors are willing to take.