Bitcoin’s weekend bounce didn’t stick for long. After reclaiming 92,000 dollars, the crypto leader $BTC ( ▲ 1.89% ) slipped back below 90,000 dollars on Monday and remains 28 percent off its October 6 all-time high. The retreat also wipes out all gains for the year, setting the stage for a tense FOMC week.
ETF flows add another layer of pressure. Bitcoin ETFs saw 87.7 million dollars in outflows last week, according to SoSoValue, a sign that sentiment is still shaky.
Markets are hypersensitive to macro headlines right now. With the Fed’s decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech landing this week, traders expect a sharp move one way or the other. The key trading band sits between 95,000 and 106,000 dollars, and a clean break above or below that range will likely dictate whether this latest bounce evolves into a real leg higher or fizzles out as another relief rally. Until then, volatility remains the base case, especially with ETF outflows persisting and macro data cooling.
Prediction markets reflect the uncertainty. Event contracts show a 36 percent chance bitcoin dips under 80,000 dollars before the year ends and an equal 36 percent chance it makes another run past 100,000 dollars.
Not everyone is gloomy. Bernstein argues bitcoin is still in an “elongated bull cycle,” powered by steady institutional participation that more than offsets retail panic selling. Even with a nearly 30 percent correction, ETFs have seen less than 5 percent outflows. The firm lifted its 2026 target to 150,000 dollars and sees the potential for a 200,000 dollar peak in 2027. Its long-term 2033 target remains roughly 1,000,000 dollars.
TD Cowen added its own projections, setting a base-case assumption of 141,277 dollars by December 2025, an upside target of 160,000 dollars, and a more pessimistic scenario of 60,000 dollars.