Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 3.31% ) is catching a tailwind from two places at once: softer inflation data and a rare dose of Washington optimism.
After the lower-than-expected core CPI print and growing enthusiasm around the amended Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, bitcoin climbed to around $93,000 this morning. ETFs also flipped modestly positive, with bitcoin funds pulling in $116.7 million to start the week, according to SoSoValue.
On-Chain Data Suggests the Worst Pressure Is Easing
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said bitcoin is transitioning out of its “most stressed phase” based on on-chain metrics.
His key takeaway is that bitcoin is now trading:
above the Active Investors Mean around $87.7K
but still below the Short-Term Holder cost basis near $98.9K
That setup implies forced selling pressure has cooled, but a breakout is still not guaranteed. There is still meaningful overhead supply that needs to get absorbed before $BTC can make a clean move higher.
The Powell Probe Adds Macro Risk
Another wild card is the ongoing probe involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto platform VALR, called the situation “paradoxical” for bitcoin.
Normally, weakening confidence in the dollar or monetary policy boosts interest in decentralized assets as a hedge. But abrupt political instability can also cause short-term risk-off behavior, triggering outflows from high-volatility markets like crypto.
Ehsani urged “extreme caution” in the coming weeks, saying outcomes could push bitcoin sharply either direction:
if the Fed holds firm, markets may revert to fundamentals
if the White House forces a rate cut and launches stimulus, bitcoin and gold could surge
The Big Catalyst: Regulatory Clarity May Finally Be Coming
Benchmark analysts said this week could mark “the beginning of the end” of crypto’s regulatory limbo.
A Senate committee is expected to vote Thursday on the amended Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, and analysts think progress through committee and toward a floor vote would be a major de-risking event for crypto.
Their argument is straightforward: institutions will not fully commit until there is regulatory clarity, and institutional liquidity is what ultimately supports sustainable long-term valuations.
Not Everyone Thinks It Gets Passed
Not all analysts are convinced the bill will move quickly.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, said he is “not holding his breath” for passage this month, warning delays could weigh heavily on a market that has struggled with momentum for months.
Bottom line: bitcoin is stabilizing, ETF flows are improving, and policy optimism is rising, but the breakout hinges on whether crypto regulation finally moves forward and whether macro chaos stays contained.