Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 5.11% ) has spent the past couple of weeks stuck in the mid-$60,000 range, unable to reclaim $70,000 as macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and fallout from a recent liquidation event continue to weigh on sentiment. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is still down nearly 50% from its October all-time high, and many analysts say the pain may not be over.
ETF outflows are adding fuel to the caution. Nearly $1 billion has exited bitcoin funds this month, putting February on track to become the fourth straight month of withdrawals. Retail anxiety is also surging, with online searches about bitcoin “going to zero” hitting levels not seen since the FTX collapse.
Why some analysts think the real bottom is lower
Several experts argue that true market bottoms typically involve a “capitulation” phase where weak holders exit and ownership shifts to stronger hands. According to derivatives data specialists, that process hasn’t fully played out yet. Without new classes of buyers stepping in, the market may struggle to form a durable base.
Historically, bitcoin bear markets have also produced deeper drawdowns. Previous cycles saw declines of 50% to as much as 80%, implying potential downside toward the $30,000 range if the pattern repeats. Others point to key technical zones around $55,000 to $58,000, near the long-term 200-week moving average, as more realistic targets for a final washout.
Liquidity, not hype, will decide the next move
Macro conditions remain the biggest obstacle to a sustained rally. High interest rates, a strong dollar, and cautious institutional flows all reduce the liquidity that typically fuels crypto bull runs. Without a clear shift, such as rate cuts or large ETF inflows, analysts warn that rebounds could be temporary.
Options markets suggest traders are bracing for another dip, with heavy positioning around the $60,000 to $62,500 range. Some see this as a potential liquidity sweep that could clear out stop-loss orders before any meaningful recovery begins.
Not everyone is bearish
Despite the caution, long-term bulls aren’t giving up. Some investors believe bitcoin could remain range-bound between roughly $50,000 and $95,000 in the near term before resuming its upward trajectory as regulation clarifies and liquidity returns. Over an 18-month horizon, they still expect new all-time highs.
The consensus takeaway: calling a precise bottom is notoriously difficult. Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend less on technical patterns and more on macro shifts, investor flows, and whether a new wave of buyers emerges to absorb supply from those still exiting the market.