Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 5.11% ) was supposed to be one of the biggest winners of Trump’s second presidency. Instead, the first 12 months ended up looking like a brutal reminder of one crypto truth: politics can pump sentiment, but it doesn’t guarantee returns.
On January 20, 2025, BTC hit an intraday high of $109,114.
On January 20, 2026, it’s hovering around ~$90,500, down ~17%.
The trigger today is the same thing rattling everything else: tariff threats + geopolitical noise. In this case, Trump’s escalation around Greenland and potential tariffs on European countries hit risk assets, crypto included, and helped spark ~$780M in crypto liquidations.
The broader crypto market isn’t immune either. Total market cap fell from $3.36T on inauguration day to ~$3.14T now.
The last year was “bullish headlines, ugly chart”
If you followed the narrative, 2025 should’ve been a monster year.
Crypto got political tailwinds, the market screamed “pro-crypto presidency,” and everyone expected Bitcoin to do what it always does in peak cycle years: rip faces.
But as BitcoinQuant cofounder Rohan Hirani put it, 2025 was a paradox.
If you look at headlines, it looked like the most bullish year in history.
If you look at price action, it was a mess.
BTC ended 2025 down ~6%, and sentiment repeatedly collapsed, with the Fear & Greed Index dipping below 20 multiple times.
The “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect hit hard
Multiple analysts framed 2025 as a classic front-run trade.
The inauguration became peak optimism, and the market basically priced in perfection before anything structural actually happened.
That means when the real world showed up (delays, politics, slow legislation, macro shocks), the premium got washed out.
Bitwise strategist Juan Leon said investors focusing only on the 12-month return are missing the bigger setup: the inauguration hype got cleared out, and now Bitcoin is building from a stronger base without that “political euphoria premium.”
Why Bitcoin didn’t moon even with pro-crypto vibes
The big expectation was simple: political signaling would instantly trigger adoption and capital flows.
Instead, what actually mattered more was slower, structural stuff:
ETFs and institutional access
Regulatory clarity progress (even if slow)
Macro environment and rate expectations
Positioning, leverage, and sentiment cycles
Hyperbola Network cofounder Jayanand Sagar summed it up well: Bitcoin didn’t change overnight. It kept evolving into something closer to a macro hedge and balance sheet asset, not just a pure speculative casino token.
The Trump family still profited big from crypto
Even if BTC didn’t deliver the “to the moon” promise in year one, crypto still made one group richer:
Trump’s family.
Bloomberg estimated digital assets added ~$1.4B to Trump family wealth over the past year.
So yes, the trade didn’t “work” the way retail wanted, but the money definitely moved.
2026 outlook: strong foundation, but still not a straight line
The tone across analysts is basically:
Long-term bullish
Short-term cautious
Coin Bureau cofounder Nic Puckrin noted Bitcoin got hit with heavy headwinds:
AI trade stealing capital/attention
Precious metals outperforming
Geopolitical uncertainty
Less rate cut optimism
Catalysts not fully materializing yet (like the Clarity Act still not passed)
But he also pointed out something important: leverage flush-outs tend to be healthy.
Open interest allegedly dropped ~30% (from ~$15B to ~$10B), which is often what markets look like near major bottoms.
Key levels to watch now
This is the clean technical roadmap implied in the article:
If BTC breaks below $90K, ETF selling could accelerate
$88K is the major support level traders are watching
To get bullish momentum back, BTC needs to reclaim $100K first
After that, the market starts talking about “new ATH attempt” again
Some projections are still aggressive. Bernstein expects $150K in H1 2026 (revised down from higher forecasts) and $500K by 2030.
But the article’s main message is pretty simple:
Political favor helps sentiment, not price certainty.