Bitcoin is back on the move, jumping above $94,000 for the first time since mid-November and pulling risk appetite with it. The backdrop is looking less like classic crypto trading and more like a macropolitical supercycle where liquidity, regulation, and institutional flows matter more than miner supply, according to Farzam Ehsani of VALR.
Bitcoin $BTC ( ▲ 1.71% ) is still down for the year and well off its October all-time high, and the next catalyst is clear. The Fed’s rate cut today is widely expected, but the tone of the policy statement will determine whether bitcoin can build on this week’s momentum or slip back into its recent chop.
ETF flows are finally showing life again, with more than $150 million entering spot bitcoin funds on Monday. Still, traders are split. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says bitcoin’s wide consolidation range shows a market waiting for direction. A supportive Fed could push BTC toward the mid-$90,000s, while a cautious one could send it back into the $80,000s.
Others are watching resistance at $94,000, which rejected the rally yesterday. Some analysts warn that a hawkish cut could dim hopes of a Santa rally and leave bitcoin finishing the year under $100,000. But sentiment could flip quickly in 2026, especially if Kevin Hassett ends up replacing Powell.
Standard Chartered is less optimistic in the near term. The bank cut its forecasts, describing the moment as a cold breeze rather than a full crypto winter, and now expects bitcoin to hit $100,000 in 2025 and $150,000 in 2026. Its long-term target of $500,000 has been pushed back to 2030.