Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 13.74% ) is not just falling. It is running out of reasons to bounce.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has slid to levels not seen since October 2024, dropping more than 20% to start the year and nearly 50% from its all-time high. What was once a “buy every dip” market is now stuck in a grind lower, with analysts warning that this looks less like a pullback and more like a full reset.
From bull cycle to bear regime
On-chain data firms say the shift is already here. Indicators that typically mark bear markets have flipped, spot demand is weak, and institutional flows have cooled. Bitcoin has even broken below its long-term moving averages, something that historically signals deeper downside ahead.
Several analysts now see the next key support zone between the high $50,000s and low $60,000s if the $70,000 area fails to hold. In other words, the market is no longer debating whether this is a correction. It is debating how deep the bear phase goes.
Macro is not your friend
Crypto is trading like a risk asset again, and the macro backdrop is not helping. Equity valuations remain high, growth is slowing, and any real pullback in the Nasdaq could hit bitcoin even harder. Add in geopolitical tensions and tariff risks, and investors have plenty of reasons to stay defensive.
Even traditional bitcoin narratives are wobbling. The “digital gold” argument has lost steam as precious metals rally without crypto following. The four-year cycle talk is getting quieter. And instead of debasement fears lifting prices, tighter liquidity is doing the opposite.
Regulation delays and ETF fatigue
Hopes that US crypto legislation would unlock a new wave of institutional demand have faded as negotiations drag on. Without regulatory clarity, large allocators are moving cautiously. That caution is showing up in ETF flows, which have slowed noticeably compared with last year’s surge.
For bitcoin to regain momentum, analysts say it needs a real liquidity catalyst. That could mean a clear shift toward easier monetary policy or a strong revival in ETF inflows. Right now, neither is happening.
The hidden pressure from corporate buyers
Last year’s boom in corporate bitcoin treasuries is now a risk. Many companies that loaded up on bitcoin are sitting on losses. If prices keep falling and their own shares weaken, some could be forced to sell holdings to shore up balance sheets.
That potential supply overhang is one more weight on a market already struggling with thin spot demand.
Until liquidity improves or a new narrative takes hold, bitcoin may remain stuck in what one analyst called a transition from “distribution to reset.” Translation: fewer quick rebounds, more grinding volatility, and a market searching for its next real reason to go up.