Seagate $STX ( ▲ 0.67% ) is catching a bid after BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral and raised its price target to $380, implying roughly 15% upside from current levels.
It’s basically the Wall Street version of saying: this storage cycle isn’t a quick trade anymore, it’s becoming a real multi-year theme.
Why Seagate is back in focus
Seagate makes hard disk drives (HDDs), which sounds boring until you remember one thing: AI data centers are basically giant warehouses for data.
Hyperscalers need insane amounts of storage capacity, and that surge in demand has pushed HDD pricing higher and created supply tightness.
This industry is also now dominated by a two-player setup: Seagate and Western Digital $WDC ( ▲ 0.58% ) .
BNP kept its outperform rating on Western Digital too, which tells you they’re not just bullish on Seagate, they’re bullish on the whole storage bottleneck trade.
The big shift: HDD is turning into a “quality” business
BNP’s core argument is that the HDD industry has structurally changed in a way that makes it more profitable long-term.
They say the setup now looks like:
an effective duopoly
a higher mix of data center demand
more disciplined capex
That’s important because storage companies used to be cyclical whipsaws.
Now the thesis is: less competition + smarter spending + relentless AI storage demand = longer, cleaner upcycle.
What BNP thinks the market is missing
BNP says they upgraded Seagate because they’ve gained confidence the current upswing isn’t fragile.
Instead, they see robust data center demand driving an upcycle longer than they originally expected.
And they go a step further: they think Seagate and Western Digital deserve a secular re-rating to over 20x earnings.
That’s the real juice here.
Bottom line
This isn’t “Seagate got a target bump.”
This is Wall Street saying: AI storage demand is becoming durable, and the HDD business is finally structured like a disciplined duopoly instead of a chaotic commodity cycle.