Bitcoin is closing out the year on shaky footing, but Citi thinks the next leg higher could be dramatic. In its 2026 digital assets outlook, the bank laid out a wide range of scenarios that still skew meaningfully to the upside for bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 0.47% ) .
Big targets, wide range
Citi’s base case pegs bitcoin at $143,000 over the next 12 months, well above current levels. The bull case stretches that target to $189,000, driven largely by a rebound in spot bitcoin ETF demand. On the other end of the spectrum, the bear case sits at $78,000 and assumes recessionary macro conditions start to dominate sentiment.
The timing matters. Citi analysts note that bitcoin is currently trading close to their activity-based estimates, which points to choppy, range-bound trading between roughly $80,000 and $100,000 until clearer catalysts emerge. Legislative progress around crypto regulation, potentially in Q2 2026, is flagged as a key unlock.
ETF flows and market psychology
The short-term backdrop remains uncomfortable. Bitcoin is down roughly 30% from its October peak, while spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.1 billion in net outflows in December, the third-largest monthly drawdown on record. That combination helps explain why Citi expects consolidation before any sustained breakout.
Market-implied probabilities tell a similar story. Event contracts suggest only a low double-digit chance that bitcoin reaches $150,000 before mid-2026, underscoring how cautious positioning remains despite lofty long-term targets.
Why patience may be required
Coin Bureau cofounder Nic Puckrin argues that near-term risks are still stacked against crypto. Potential early-2026 headwinds include debt ceiling drama, a possible government shutdown, and lingering uncertainty around crypto legislation. Even a favorable Fed-related headline could prove fleeting if broader macro anxiety persists.
The takeaway is less about whether bitcoin can reach new highs, and more about the path it takes to get there. Citi’s view implies that volatility, pullbacks, and long stretches of frustration may come first, before the next major leg higher even becomes possible.