Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is leaning all the way in on Tesla $TSLA as 2025 approaches. The longtime Tesla bull, who says he has never viewed the company as just a carmaker, published a fresh set of characteristically bold predictions outlining why he thinks Tesla’s next chapter could be its biggest yet.
Autonomy takes the wheel
Ives expects Tesla to aggressively expand its Robotaxi network across the US next year, reaching more than 30 cities. He also sees volume production of Tesla’s Cybercab starting as early as April or May, with a broader ramp in fully autonomous vehicles and robotics later in the year. Over the next decade, Ives believes Tesla could command roughly 70% of the global autonomous market, a view that puts him well ahead of more cautious forecasts from firms like Morgan Stanley.
A key driver is software. Ives thinks Full Self Driving adoption could climb above 50%, up from about 12% today, a shift he says would fundamentally change Tesla’s financial model and margins.
Regulation turns from headwind to tailwind
On the policy front, Ives expects federal regulatory barriers around FSD and autonomous driving to ease significantly under President Trump. He predicts an executive order in early 2026 that would centralize oversight at the federal level and reduce the patchwork of state by state rules that currently slow deployment.
Valuation targets get even bigger
With Tesla’s market cap sitting around $1.4 trillion, Ives sees a path to $2 trillion within the next year. His bull case goes further, calling for a $3 trillion valuation by the end of 2026. He reiterated his $600 price target and outperform rating, and in a more optimistic scenario sees Tesla shares, currently around $465, reaching $800 within the next 12 to 18 months.
Bottom line: Ives is betting that autonomy, friendlier regulation, and high margin software turn Tesla into something much larger than an EV company, and he’s convinced the market still isn’t fully pricing that in.