Delta Stock Slides After 2026 Earnings Forecast Falls Short of Wall Street Expectations

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 2.39% ) delivered solid Q4 results, but investors are focused on what really matters in this market: guidance.

And on that front, Delta disappointed. Shares fell sharply Tuesday after the airline forecast 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $6.50 to $7.50, below the $7.28 analysts were expecting.

Delta’s 2026 EPS guide implies growth, but not enough to satisfy a Street that’s been trained to punish anything less than perfection.

The midpoint of Delta’s range still implies about 20% bottom-line growth for 2026, but the headline is simple: the outlook came in light, and the stock got punished immediately.

Delta earned $5.82 per share in 2025, below the company’s own $6 forecast from October.

That miss looks even worse in context because Delta originally guided for more than $7.35 per share before tariffs became a reality, back when the company thought 2025 could be its best fiscal year ever.

When Delta sneezes, the rest of the sector catches it.

Other carriers sold off alongside $DAL ( ▼ 2.39% ) , including:

Investors are reading this as a broader sign that airline earnings power might be nearing a ceiling, especially as cost pressures and macro uncertainty rise.

For the first quarter of 2026, Delta expects:

Nothing alarming, but also not the type of guidance that sparks enthusiasm.

Delta posted adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.55, slightly above FactSet expectations of $1.53.

However, it still landed below Delta’s own projected range of $1.60 to $1.90, which is part of why the market is reacting so harshly. The company cleared the Street, but failed to clear itself.

Delta continues to get more of its growth from higher-end customers.

Premium ticket sales rose 7% year over year, while main cabin sales fell 5%. The airline industry is increasingly being propped up by customers paying for comfort, not volume.

Delta’s co-branded American Express $AXP ( ▼ 0.44% ) card business generated $8.4 billion in revenue for the year, up 11% from 2024.

Airline credit card margins are estimated around 50%, which makes these partnerships one of the best businesses airlines have, especially when airfare pricing power becomes less predictable.

Delta also announced it reached an agreement to buy 30 Boeing $BA ( ▲ 1.98% ) 787 aircraft, a move that signals long-term capacity and fleet confidence even amid short-term uncertainty.

Bottom line: Delta’s earnings were fine, but the guidance was not. In a market where expectations are high and sentiment is fragile, “pretty good” is not good enough.