Elon Musk lit up X again after Google $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.72% ) DeepMind’s Jeff Dean pointed out that Waymo vehicles have racked up 96 million autonomous miles with no human in the driver’s seat. Musk responded that “Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla” $TSLA ( ▼ 0.2% ) and that the hierarchy between the two companies will be obvious in hindsight.
Dean’s post was a flex. Waymo operates thousands of fully autonomous vehicles across the country, while Tesla’s Robotaxi program still relies on safety operators. As of November, Tesla had about 30 Robotaxis running in Austin and roughly 120 in the Bay Area. Waymo had more than 2,500 vehicles deployed nationwide, including more than 200 in Austin and over 1,000 in the Bay Area.
Musk insists Tesla’s real advantage is not the size of its commercial fleet today, but its data. Tesla vehicles have driven 6.7 billion miles with Full Self-Driving. The company believes that with a software update, millions of Teslas could instantly convert into robotaxis. Waymo, on the other hand, emphasizes reliability first. Its cars have driven more than 100 million autonomous miles and completed more than 10 million paid rides.
Here is how the two tech giants really stack up.
Coverage and scale
Waymo currently operates autonomous ride-hailing services in five American cities and plans to expand into more than 20 additional markets. Tesla $TSLA finally launched its Robotaxi service this summer and has promised availability in 8 to 10 cities by year-end. Analysts like Wedbush’s Dan Ives think Tesla could reach 30 cities in 2026, but for now Waymo covers far more ground and offers true driverless service.
Tesla’s current level of autonomy still requires oversight. In Austin, Tesla’s Robotaxis have crossed about 250,000 autonomous miles with a monitor in the passenger seat. In the Bay Area, Tesla uses supervised FSD in a ride-hailing format that recently passed 1 million miles. Waymo is operating hundreds of thousands of paid autonomous trips every week, with no one behind the wheel.
Fleet strategy
Tesla is betting that an enormous existing fleet can be activated through software once its autonomy system matures. Every Tesla with Hardware 4 could be future robotaxi inventory. Musk sees this as the ultimate advantage. Waymo is pursuing a different path, using robust sensor suites that include lidar and radar on higher cost vehicles like the Jaguar I-PACE. Waymo’s upcoming generation will still cost more than four times a Tesla, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.
Waymo also uses more cameras and more expensive hardware overall. Musk believes lidar is unnecessary. Waymo believes it is essential for safety. The hardware philosophies are fundamentally different, and the winner will determine the standard for the industry.
Money, margins, and support from the parent companies
Waymo is backed by Alphabet $GOOGL, whose market cap is more than double Tesla’s. However, Waymo’s standalone valuation is tiny compared to the trillion-dollar upside that some analysts believe Tesla could capture from autonomy alone. Google’s Other Bets division, which includes Waymo, is expected to lose more than Tesla earns in 2025.
Tesla’s hardware is cheaper to manufacture and deploy. Waymo’s is more expensive but operates at higher autonomy levels. If robotaxi pricing eventually becomes a low-margin commodity, as ride-hailing did in the mid-2010s, the cost structure of each company will matter more than the cool factor of riding in a driverless car.
Pricing power and the race to the bottom
Today, autonomous rides still command a premium. In San Francisco, Waymo rides often cost more than Uber or Lyft, and riders are willing to pay for the novelty of a driverless car. Tesla pricing is still fluid. The Austin Robotaxi launched at a jokey 4.20 dollars, then 6.90 dollars, and now fluctuates dynamically.
Once autonomy becomes ordinary, the companies cannot count on premium pricing. Ride-hailing already showed what happens when pricing becomes the battlefield. It is a race to the bottom. Waymo and Tesla may face the same destiny unless they pivot to selling technology, licensing, or operating large-scale fleet partnerships rather than relying on direct ride-hailing revenue.
The biggest unknown: Does true autonomy actually work at scale
Tesla has the broader fleet and data. Waymo has the safer commercial product. Tesla has speed and ambition. Waymo has reliability and regulatory comfort. Tesla is rolling out quickly.
Waymo is expanding steadily. Both companies are gambling trillions on the belief that full autonomy is not just possible, but transformative.
Before either side wins the robotaxi war, they need to prove something bigger than market share. They need to show the world that fully autonomous driving is ready for prime time and safe enough to trust everywhere, not just in select zones.
Until then, the Tesla versus Waymo fight is a high-stakes race happening on two tracks. Tesla is trying to turn billions of real-world driving miles into a breakthrough that flips the industry. Waymo is trying to build the most reliable autonomous service on earth and scale it methodically.
And if Musk is wrong and Waymo actually does have a chance, we will see that in hindsight too.