Gold is quietly having one of the strongest runs in all of global markets, and it is doing so while leaving bitcoin behind. The metal has not traded below its 200 day moving average since November 2023 and now sits roughly 25% above that level. Not the S&P 500, not the Nasdaq 100, and not even Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.75% ) can match that kind of sustained trend strength.
Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 0.18% ) , often pitched as “digital gold,” is doing the opposite. In Q4, it slipped about 20% below its 200 day moving average for the first time since late 2022, creating one of the widest performance gaps between the two assets in years.
A Tale of Two Trends
Bitcoin has historically acted as a thermometer for speculative appetite, which makes this divergence especially notable. Despite strong performance in high beta tech and unprofitable growth stocks, bitcoin is lagging badly. 2025 is shaping up to be the first year in over a decade where bitcoin underperforms gold while the S&P 500 continues to rise.
The ratio of bitcoin to gold peaked shortly after President Trump’s inauguration and hit an all time high between the election and his return to office. Since then, the trade has unwound. The “crypto president” narrative appears to have triggered a sell the news moment, similar to how Trump’s first term coincided with a major top in USD MXN before the pandemic.
At its peak, one bitcoin could buy more than 40 troy ounces of gold. Today, that figure is less than half. One BTC still equals one BTC, but its purchasing power versus gold has clearly eroded.
What the Ratio Is Telling Us
This relationship is worth watching into 2026. The gap could signal that bitcoin’s role as a risk asset has shifted, or that its earlier gains pulled forward returns that are now being worked off. Either way, the underperformance stands out in a market otherwise willing to chase momentum.
Gold, meanwhile, continues to attract buyers across the spectrum. Retail traders are riding the trend, systematic strategies are owning strength, and central banks remain steady buyers. Historically, breaks in gold’s long streaks above its 200 day moving average have coincided with meaningful macro shifts. The last time gold exceeded its current run was in 2011, a period that also marked turning points for battered sectors like homebuilders and banks after the financial crisis.
If gold finally stumbles, the implications will likely extend well beyond the commodity itself. Until then, the metal is still doing what strong trends tend to do. Keep going.