Gold is no longer trading like a commodity. It is trading like a geopolitical insurance policy.
Goldman Sachs just hiked its December 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900, basically saying: the bid under gold is not going away, because demand is coming from the most stubborn buyers on earth.
Central banks. And wealthy people who do not trust the system.
Why Goldman is getting more bullish on gold
Goldman’s updated target implies a 17% upside from January’s month-to-date average price.
And the logic is simple: gold demand has turned structural.
This is not just ETF tourists chasing performance. This is global risk hedging becoming permanent.
Goldman says the biggest driver is still central bank buying, which they estimate accounts for 14 percentage points of the expected appreciation. ETF inflows add another 3 percentage points, helped by the assumption that the Fed cuts rates sometime this year.
Central banks are still in accumulation mode
Central banks have been buying gold aggressively since 2022, especially after the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves changed the psychology of reserve management forever.
Goldman pointed out that this wave of central bank demand helped push gold up 15% in 2023 and 26% in 2024.
Then 2025 turned into something else entirely.
The rally accelerated as central banks and private investors started competing for limited bullion supply, and gold surged another 67% last year.
Recent Greenland tensions only poured gasoline on that trend.
The new gold buyer is not an ETF
The most important part of the note is that Goldman says private sector demand is expanding well beyond ETFs.
They describe a new class of buyers who are using gold as protection against macro policy risk and currency debasement.
That includes:
High-net-worth families buying physical gold
Call option buying in gold
Other “hard to track” flows that Goldman says have become a significant incremental demand source
This is the type of demand that does not rotate out after a headline fades.
The “sticky hedge” thesis
Goldman’s core assumption is that these hedges persist through 2026.
They contrast it with election-driven hedging in 2024, which unwound quickly once the outcome was known.
But this time, the hedge is broader.
It is not about one event. It is about global policy uncertainty becoming the baseline.
Bottom line
Goldman is basically saying: gold is being structurally re-rated because the buyer base has changed.
When central banks and wealthy private capital are both trying to get exposure to the same limited supply, price targets start drifting higher for a reason.