A new Deutsche Bank survey of 440 global asset managers highlights what investors see as the biggest risks heading into 2026. The standout takeaway is not just what worries them most, but what barely registers as a concern.
AI and tech bubble risk tops the list
More than half of respondents said the perception of an AI and tech bubble is the single biggest threat to market stability in 2026. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted this is the largest lead any single risk has had in the survey’s history, even though concern has eased slightly since September and remains below levels seen during the 2021 liquidity boom.
Related worries followed at a distance, including fears that a new Federal Reserve chair could cut rates too aggressively and destabilize markets, or that stress in private capital could spill over. Rising bond yields and unexpected rate hikes due to sticky inflation also ranked, though at much lower levels.
What investors are not worried about
Strikingly, several risks that have recently rattled markets drew very little concern. Few respondents flagged a global pandemic, escalating Middle East conflict, a global trade war, a Taiwan flashpoint, or a major French political or financial crisis as serious threats for 2026.
Despite US high yield credit spreads sitting near post 1998 lows, investors also showed little anxiety about credit risk, suggesting complacency outside of tech valuations.
Positioning and market expectations
Reflecting valuation unease, 71 percent of investors said they prefer the rest of the US equity market over the Magnificent Seven $MAGS, even though those stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 $SPX by roughly nine percentage points since mid 2024.
The survey also found rapid adoption of AI in daily work. The share of respondents using AI jumped from about 50 percent in mid 2024 to 86 percent today, with adoption accelerating faster in Europe than in the US.
Looking ahead, investors expect more modest returns. The average forecast for the S&P 500 in 2026 is a 6.9 percent gain, well below the roughly 15 percent delivered so far in 2025, but still the most optimistic outlook this survey has produced in four years.