Intel $INTC ( ▼ 17.03% ) just found out the hard way that “multiyear journey” is not what traders want to hear after a +50% rip.
The chipmaker posted stronger-than-expected Q4 results, but the stock cratered after its Q1 guidance came in below expectations, sending shares down double digits and extending losses during the conference call. Intel’s message was basically: the turnaround is real, but it’s going to take time. The market’s response: cool story, but we’re leaving.
And context matters here. Coming into earnings, Intel had already surged nearly 50% to start 2026, meaning the bar wasn’t “good.” It was “perfect.”
A great quarter… and then a guidance gut punch
Intel beat on Q4 results, but the selloff was driven by what came next. The company’s Q1 outlook missed Wall Street estimates, and shares slid further as management tried to frame the reset as temporary.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan told investors: “We are on a multiyear journey,” and it will “take time and resolve.”
That may be fine for long-term holders.
For hot money that just rode a January rocket? Not so much.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon nailed the vibe: Intel was up 47% in three weeks, largely off hype and positioning, so the report needed to be flawless. It wasn’t.
The real issue: Intel got caught flat-footed on supply
Intel blamed the soft Q1 outlook on supply constraints, saying Q1 would be the worst of it and things should improve in Q2 and beyond.
But analysts weren’t fully buying the “it’s just temporary” framing.
During the call, Rasgon directly questioned how Intel could have supply problems given it literally owns the factories, pointing to $11.6B of inventory that still wasn’t in the right place at the right time.
In other words: this wasn’t about demand collapsing.
It was about execution.
The foundry dream is still a ‘show me’ story
Intel also couldn’t offer hard proof of major customer wins yet, which matters a lot because the foundry narrative is a huge piece of the turnaround pitch.
For Intel’s 14A process, Tan said customers will likely start making firm supplier decisions in the second half of 2026 into early 2027.
That timeline is not “tomorrow.”
That’s “maybe next year if everything goes right.”
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur stayed cautious, warning that Intel could still lose share in key product markets (especially server CPU where AMD remains strong), while the external foundry business remains largely unproven so far.
Bottom line
Intel’s rally priced in a clean turnaround path.
This earnings report reminded the market that the comeback is not guaranteed, and definitely not on a neat timeline.
For traders, “eventually” is not a catalyst.