One of the research shops that correctly called diet drugs, AI, and defense stocks early says the biggest edge for 2026 is not certainty. It is being open to “maybe.”
Citrini Research, led by investor James van Geelen, more than tripled returns since the 2022 market bottom by staying flexible. Now it has rolled out a fresh batch of ideas for the year ahead, including a surprisingly useful signal it calls the Girlfriend Index.
1. The core philosophy for 2026
Citrini’s main takeaway is simple. Investors tend to get paid when they stay open to outcomes that feel uncomfortable at first.
In 2025, that meant believing AI demand could stay strong even with higher rates, and that weight loss drugs would reshape healthcare economics faster than expected. For 2026, the firm thinks similar open mindedness will be rewarded.
2. AI job cuts are still not priced in
Citrini argues that markets are underestimating how aggressively companies will use AI to reduce headcount.
Their screen focuses on firms with low net income per employee that are already cutting jobs. Historically, these stocks have lagged the S&P 500, but Citrini believes that changes once AI driven productivity gains become visible.
Names they highlight include $IBM ( ▲ 0.52% ) , $BAH ( ▲ 0.09% ) , $CTSH ( ▲ 1.95% ) , $GIB ( ▲ 0.5% ) , and $AVY ( ▼ 1.3% ).
3. On device AI winners and losers
Rather than betting only on massive data centers, Citrini is leaning into on device AI. This means AI models running directly on phones and hardware instead of bouncing everything to the cloud.
They expect memory and inference bottlenecks to matter more than people think.
Their long ideas include $QCOM ( ▲ 0.77% ) , $AAPL ( ▼ 0.3% ) , $ADI ( ▲ 0.2% ) , and MediaTek. On the flip side, they see pressure on PCs, laptops, and gaming hardware makers like $HPQ ( ▼ 1.17% ) , $DELL ( ▲ 3.05% ) , $CRSR ( ▼ 2.24% ) , $NTDOY ( ▼ 2.74% ) , and Lenovo as refresh cycles weaken.
4. Midterms could reshape healthcare and advertising
If Republicans lose control of the House, Citrini thinks attempts to repeal or weaken the Affordable Care Act stall. That could benefit insurers operating within the current system.
Their preferred names here are $MOH ( ▲ 0.49% ) , $CNC ( ▲ 0.38% ) , and $OSCR ( ▲ 0.41% ) .
They also expect heavy political ad spending from incumbents defending seats. Potential beneficiaries include $OMC ( ▼ 0.51% ) , $WPP ( ▼ 0.54% ) , $NXST ( ▼ 1.28% ) , $TGNA ( ▼ 0.92% ) , and $SBGI ( ▼ 1.56% ) .
5. Biotech’s “fat redistribution” trade
Beyond headline weight loss drugs, Citrini is watching companies targeting how fat is stored in the body, not just how much is lost.
The idea is fewer injections, preserved muscle mass, and better metabolic outcomes. Stocks mentioned include $WVE ( ▲ 3.83% ) , $ARWR ( ▲ 1.43% ) , $ALNY ( ▲ 1.93% ) , and $LLY ( ▲ 1.45% ) related programs.
6. What the “Girlfriend Index” actually means
The Girlfriend Index is Citrini’s way of tracking shifts in female consumer behavior before they show up in earnings.
The firm watches TikTok trends, resale markets, influencer behavior, Reddit threads, and Instagram engagement to spot what people are starting to buy, wear, or talk about earlier than traditional data captures.
After years of quiet luxury and minimalism, Citrini thinks consumers are ready to be visible again. That shift could show up first in fashion, beauty, and lifestyle brands that feel expressive rather than understated.
The big picture is not that one signal predicts everything. It is that staying open to unexpected trends has been one of the most profitable trades of this cycle.