Moderna Forecasts $1.9 Billion in 2025 Revenue as COVID Vaccine Demand Holds Up Better Than Feared

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 1.34% ) is still heavily reliant on COVID shots, but at least the demand cliff did not arrive as fast as expected.

At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, Moderna said its COVID-19 business performed better than anticipated last year, helped by a smaller-than-feared drop in vaccination rates, even as the Trump administration has narrowed federal guidance on who should get vaccinated.

Moderna expects total 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, landing at the high end of its latest guidance range of $1.6 billion to $2 billion.

That matters because Moderna is still largely a one-product company. The COVID-19 vaccine remains its only meaningful revenue driver, leaving the stock extremely sensitive to vaccination trends and any changes in policy or public sentiment.

CFO James Mock said U.S. retail vaccination rates fell about 26% year over year in 2025.

That number is still a drop, but it is toward the low end of the 20% to 40% decline Moderna previously projected, giving the company a better runway than the market may have been pricing in.

This comes amid continued political pressure and messaging shifts from the administration, which has reduced the scope of guidance around COVID vaccination.

Moderna has been bleeding money since 2023 and does not expect to break even until 2028, meaning the company remains in a long rebuild phase.

To get there, Moderna has been pushing an aggressive cost-cutting plan while trying to expand beyond COVID.

Moderna is working to diversify revenue with new products, including:

If those products hit, Moderna could finally look like a platform company instead of a single-product pandemic winner trying to reinvent itself.

For now, the market takeaway is simpler: COVID vaccine demand is falling, but not collapsing, and that is enough to keep Moderna’s revenue outlook on the upper end of guidance.