Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 4.15% ) has spent years pitching Robotaxis as the “next iPhone moment” for the company. But Morgan Stanley is basically telling investors to lower the hype meter.
Ahead of Tesla’s earnings report next week, the bank put out a note estimating Tesla will have just 1,000 Robotaxis in service by the end of 2026.
That is a huge gap versus Musk’s own earlier forecast of 1,500 Robotaxis by the end of 2025.
The Robotaxi reality check
Morgan Stanley’s view is simple: Tesla is progressing, but scaling this thing to thousands of cars fast is harder than Musk makes it sound.
Instead of the fleet exploding in 2025, the bank thinks the Robotaxi buildout is going to be more gradual, with 2026 being the real milestone year.
So the story shifts from “overnight Robotaxi network” to “slow ramp, more patience required.”
The real unlock is not fleet size
The note also makes a bigger point: Robotaxis only become a true business when Tesla removes the safety monitors.
Because if every ride still needs a human babysitter, it is not an autonomous ride-hailing platform. It is just a dressed-up testing program.
Morgan Stanley called removing safety monitors the key precursor to personal unsupervised FSD rollout.
That is when Tesla goes from “cool demo” to “real platform.”
Austin is still the proving ground
Musk has already promised driverless rides in Austin by the end of 2025.
But right now, those rides are still in the testing stage. Meaning we are not at the “scaling” part yet, we are still at the “prove it works reliably” part.
And that timeline is exactly why Morgan Stanley is dialing expectations down.
Tesla is building toward Robotaxis, but Wall Street is starting to price it like a marathon, not a sprint.