✂️ Powell’s Final Cut?

Good afternoon! Australia just flipped the switch on the world’s first nationwide under-16 social media ban, instantly turning more than a million teen accounts into digital paperweights. Platforms now have to verify ages with tools ranging from video selfies to government IDs or risk multimillion-dollar fines. Early reports say the systems are already glitching, and teens are predictably dodging the rules with VPNs.

The ban is popular at home, with 77% of Australians supporting it as a way to curb cyberbullying and protect mental health. Critics argue it will push kids into riskier corners of the internet and cut off community for rural and marginalized teens. Countries from Denmark to Malaysia are watching closely to see if Australia just launched a trend or a cautionary tale.

The Fed just pulled off a hat trick. For the third straight meeting, policymakers trimmed interest rates by a quarter point, bringing the benchmark down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

No one was shocked, but the vote behind the scenes was anything but chill. Two regional Fed presidents wanted to hold the line on inflation, while Governor Stephen Miran pushed for a double-sized (50bps) cut to rescue a cooling labor market. It is the fourth meeting in a row without a unanimous vote, and the loudest sign yet that the room is no longer marching in sync.

The Forecast: Surprisingly Sunny

The road ahead is looking oddly cheerful. According to the latest dot plot, the Fed sees only one more cut in 2026, but it is pairing that with forecasts for stronger GDP, lower unemployment, and a smoother glide path for inflation.

Powell said consumer spending is holding up and business investment is still expanding, though he admitted that the government shutdown has left officials working with half-lit dashboard lights. The Fed also plans to beef up short-term liquidity starting Friday with about $40 billion in Treasury bill purchases.

Powell’s Last Lap

Powell’s commentary hit differently this time because this might be his final curtain call. His term ends in May, and the White House is expected to pick a successor early next year. Contenders include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, and whoever gets the job will inherit both Powell’s chair and Trump’s persistent commentary about rate cuts.

After today’s decision, Trump complained the Fed should have gone bigger. Powell, as usual, absorbed the criticism with royal guard composure, but you can almost see him counting the days until retirement.

Markets Leap, Traders Watch the Dots

Markets took the cut in stride. Stocks steadied after a brief wobble, short-term yields drifted lower, and traders moved on to parsing the Fed’s updated forecasts.

Officials expect GDP growth to pick up, unemployment to ease, and core inflation to drift toward 2.5% next year. The split vote makes it clear that the consensus is getting harder to maintain.

The message for 2026 is simple. The data will drive the cuts, but the dots are going to matter just as much.

Elon Musk stirred up X again after Google DeepMind’s Jeff Dean reminded the world that Waymo cars have logged 96 million autonomous miles with no one in the driver’s seat. Musk fired back that “Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla” and that history will make the hierarchy obvious. Dean’s post was a flex. Waymo runs thousands of driverless vehicles across the country. Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet still needs safety operators and is only active in two cities.

Musk’s counterpunch rests on Tesla’s biggest talking point: data. Tesla has logged 6.7 billion miles with Full Self-Driving and believes a software update could convert millions of cars into robotaxis. Waymo is taking the opposite route. Its service is fully driverless, has crossed 100 million autonomous miles, and completes more than 10 million paid rides. The result is a rivalry built on two very different visions of autonomy.

Where They Stand Today

Waymo is far ahead on real, live coverage. It operates in five cities and is preparing to enter more than twenty more. Tesla finally launched its Robotaxi service this year but still runs with human monitors and is aiming for ten cities by year end. Waymo handles hundreds of thousands of paid autonomous trips every week. Tesla’s supervised Robotaxi routes in Austin and the Bay Area are still counted in the thousands.

Their fleet strategies could not be more different. Tesla wants to flip a giant installed base into an instant commercial network once its autonomy system matures. Waymo is investing in sensor-heavy, higher cost vehicles like the Jaguar I-PACE, which Google believes are necessary for safety. One side sees lidar as a crutch. The other sees it as insurance.

Business Models and Stakes

Alphabet has the cash to support Waymo through a long runway, but Waymo itself remains a tiny business compared to the upside Tesla is chasing. Analysts have floated trillion-dollar valuations if Tesla cracks autonomy at scale. Waymo’s hardware is expensive to deploy. Tesla’s is cheaper but still unproven at full autonomy. If pricing for autonomous rides eventually collapses the way Uber and Lyft pricing did, cost structure starts to matter more than novelty.

The biggest question is not Tesla versus Waymo. It is whether true autonomy works everywhere. Tesla has the fleet and the data. Waymo has the safety record and the trust of regulators. Tesla is moving quickly. Waymo is expanding steadily. Both companies are spending billions on the belief that autonomy is not just possible but transformative.

For now the robotaxi race is running on two tracks. Tesla is trying to turn billions of real-world miles into an industry flip. Waymo is trying to scale the most reliable autonomous service on earth. And if Musk turns out to be wrong about Waymo’s chances, the hindsight he promised will tell us that too.

The market can finally breathe again. With the Fed meeting in the rearview and Jerome Powell done holding court, things look noticeably calmer as we head into the holidays. Tomorrow’s economic calendar is basically the usual jobless claims report, which barely moves the needle this time of year.

Earnings should keep things a little more interesting. Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon, and Manchester United are all reporting, giving traders a few final storylines before everyone mentally clocks out for the season.

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