Good afternoon! Saks Global just turned luxury shopping into a clearance sport. The parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus filed for bankruptcy protection yesterday, barely a year after the merger that was supposed to “fix everything” and create a high-end retail superpower.
Instead, it created a debt monster. Saks Global says it owes at least $3.4B after sales kept sliding, vendors like Chanel and LVMH reportedly slowed shipments over unpaid bills, and a $100M debt payment came due in December that the company couldn’t cover. Saks says it’s restructuring (not liquidating), but store closures are likely, and shoppers are already stampeding in to burn gift cards and AmEx Saks credits before the lights start flickering.
MARKETS
Stocks drifted lower as traders shifted their focus to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, leaving tech as the only S&P 500 sector to close in the green. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both slipped, while the Russell 2000 ended the day mostly unchanged.
Oil and gold both edged down, and bitcoin briefly climbed above $92,000 before pulling back as volatility picked up ahead of the Fed’s decision.
STOCKS
Winners & Losers
What’s up 📈
Talen Energy exploded 11.81% after buying PJM power plants and adding 2.6 GW of gas capacity as AI-driven power demand keeps tightening the grid $TLN
Penumbra jumped 11.87% after Boston Scientific agreed to acquire the medtech company for $15B in cash and stock $PEN
Beyond Meat popped 8.12% after launching its new Beyond Immerse protein drink (yes, they missed the chance to call it “Beyond Meat Juice”) $BYND
Clearway Energy climbed 6.76% after signing power purchase agreements with Alphabet $CWEN
Oscar Health gained 4.37% as ACA enrollment headlines and subsidy uncertainty lifted managed-care names $OSCR
United Airlines rose 4.73% as oil slid, easing jet fuel pressure across airlines $UAL
Delta Air Lines advanced 4.16% on the same “cheaper oil = happier airlines” trade $DAL
Humana added 3.64% after Trump urged Congress to move forward on his healthcare framework $HUM
Nokia rose 3.85% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade tied to AI + cloud network demand $NOK
American Airlines climbed 3.73% as airlines rallied with oil down $AAL
DraftKings gained 3.32% after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock ahead of an expected strong Q4 $DKNG
JetBlue rose 3.10% as airlines caught a tailwind from falling crude $JBLU
Molina Healthcare increased 2.63% as managed-care names moved higher $MOH
What’s down 📉
Reddit sank 9.36% after RBC flagged underwhelming ad performance $RDDT
Disc Medicine dropped 7.84% amid reports the FDA is extending review timelines tied to priority review vouchers $IRON
Coinbase fell 6.48% after the Senate Banking Committee delayed markup of the Clarity Act $COIN
Strategy slid 4.70% after TD Cowen cut its price target (kept Buy, but markets still hate target cuts) $MSTR
Spotify dipped 3.95% after announcing a $1 Premium price increase starting February $SPOT
Eli Lilly fell 3.78% after a report that FDA approval of its weight-loss pill may be delayed into Q2 $LLY
Vail Resorts slipped 2.34% after reporting skier visits down 20% vs. last year $MTN
AI
TSMC just kicked off chip earnings season with a home run
The first major chip stock to report this season didn’t just beat expectations, it basically revived the “AI is still real” trade in one quarter. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company $TSM posted a monster Q4, proving the world’s most important chipmaker is still seeing demand strong enough to justify spending like it’s 2023 again.
TSMC’s revenue jumped 20% and crossed NT$1 trillion ($33B) for the first time ever, while profits surged 35%, crushing estimates and marking its eighth straight quarter of profit growth. The stock rose 4.49%, but the bigger flex was guidance: management boosted this quarter’s revenue outlook by 38% year over year, which is exactly what markets needed to hear.
Why it matters: TSMC is the AI demand lie detector
Anyone can hype AI. TSMC can’t. If the biggest manufacturer in the entire semiconductor supply chain is raising guidance and ramping capex, that’s not vibes, that’s demand visibility. This is the company that sees orders before the rest of Wall Street even knows what’s coming.
TSMC also signaled it’s not just chasing momentum. Management has repeatedly said it checks demand 2–3 years ahead, including talking not just to customers but to customers’ customers, because overbuilding would be a disaster. Translation: they’re spending bigger because they think the bigger risk is under-supplying AI, not over-supplying it.
Markets: the whole AI supply chain ripped with it
This wasn’t just a “TSMC good, stock up” moment. The entire AI ecosystem caught a bid, with memory and storage names like Sandisk $SNDK up 5.53% and Western Digital $WDC rising 3.3% as investors rotated back into data-center plumbing.
Even ASML $ASML jumped 5.37% after TSMC said it plans to raise 2026 capex as high as $56B, up from $40B last year. Bottom line: when the foundry king says “we’re building more,” the AI trade listens.
NEWS
Market Movements
🤖 Claude Cowork sparks fresh fear that AI is about to eat the software industry: Anthropic’s Claude Cowork reignited the fear that AI agents will make a lot of SaaS products feel optional, pushing investors to dump “software” as a category. The pain is showing up in broad weakness like $IGV sliding and only a minority of holdings holding their long-term trends.
🛡️ X blocks Grok from generating bikini images of real people after deepfake backlash: X says @Grok can no longer generate images of real people in revealing clothing and is tightening image tools for paid users after outrage over sexualized deepfakes. The problem is the early examples still show loopholes, raising questions about how real the guardrails actually are.
💸 Retail traders just made their biggest weekly stock bet since the post tariff bottom: JPMorgan says retail bought $12B in cash equities in the week ending Jan 14, with single-stock buys jumping to $4.9B, the most in nearly 9 months. A big chunk flowed into Mag 7 names like $NVDA and $TSLA, while $AAPL saw outflows.
📉 TD Cowen cuts Strategy $MSTR target as its bitcoin buying spree gets even bigger: TD Cowen lowered its target to $440 from $500, saying Strategy’s aggressive BTC accumulation is increasingly funded with equity, which can dilute upside. They still stayed bullish with a Buy rating and laid out a $177K base-case BTC path by late December, with wide bull and bear scenarios.
🍫 BitMine $BMNR drops $200M into MrBeast’s empire: BitMine says it’s investing $200M into Beast Industries, aiming to marry crypto finance with the biggest creator distribution machine on the planet. The company is also teasing DeFi integrations into Beast’s future financial services plans, turning this into more than just a flashy headline.
🎥 OpenAI’s Sora 2 went viral fast then cooled off just as fast: Sora 2 exploded at launch, hitting 1M downloads in five days, but monthly momentum faded as the novelty wore off. The piece argues this is the standard AI cycle: curiosity spike, sharp drop, then a smaller base of power users and trolls.
🏥 ACA enrollment deadline hits as Congress still can’t agree on subsidy fix: The enhanced ACA subsidies have expired and lawmakers still haven’t landed a replacement, raising the risk of sharply higher premiums and coverage drop-offs. Enrollment is already down versus last year, and insurers tied to the marketplace like $OSCR, $MOH, $CNC, and $UNH dipped as the deadline passed.
🎧 Spotify hikes US prices again for the third time in three years: Spotify is raising US Premium prices next month, with individual plans moving to $13 and family plans to $22 as it tests pricing power. The company is leaning harder on paid subs growth while ad revenue has been softer despite rising users.
⚡ Talen $TLN jumps after buying more PJM gas plants to feed the AI power boom: Talen announced a $3.45B acquisition of three PJM natural gas plants, signaling it’s still betting big on data center driven power demand. The deal comes even as PJM trimmed its 2027 peak demand forecast, making Talen’s confidence the real headline.
₿ When will bitcoin break $100,000 again: Analysts say the path is simple: hold the $94K to $96K zone and keep ETF inflows strong, then grind through the $97K to $100K profit-taking wall. If it gets rejected, the key reset zone they flag is $88K to $90K where liquidity is concentrated.
🧲 Two Thinking Machines Lab cofounders leave to rejoin OpenAI: Thinking Machines cofounders Barret Zoph and Luke Metz are returning to OpenAI along with researcher Sam Schoenholz, per a post from Fidji Simo. The exits add to early talent churn at the Murati-backed lab after another cofounder left for Meta.
💊 Lawsuit alleges Lilly $LLY and Novo $NVO tried to choke off compounded GLP-1s by locking up telehealth: Strive Specialties claims Lilly and Novo used telehealth partnerships to block platforms from working with compounders, limiting cheaper alternatives and prescriber choice. The lawsuit points to Novo ending a Hims deal after compounded sales continued, highlighting how messy the access vs control fight has gotten.
🚧 ICE arrests near Meta’s Hyperion data center site as AI construction meets immigration enforcement: ICE arrested two workers headed to Meta’s Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, with reports of ID checks near the site perimeter even though agents didn’t enter the facility. The bigger signal is how labor-heavy AI infrastructure builds can get disrupted when enforcement ramps up around major construction hubs.
🔋 Ford $F reportedly in talks to buy hybrid batteries from BYD $BYDDY: Ford is said to be discussing buying BYD batteries for hybrid models, potentially for factories outside the US as it ramps hybrids and pulls back from all-in EV plans. It’s a quiet admission that battery supply and cost efficiency matter more than pride when the hybrid pivot becomes the priority.
✈️ US airline stocks rise as oil drops on Trump’s softer stance on Iran intervention: Crude slid roughly 4.7% as Trump appeared to soften his posture on further Iran strikes, and markets quickly priced in fuel relief for airlines. Shares of $UAL, $DAL, and $AAL climbed around 3% as the energy move did the heavy lifting.
FINANCE
Big Banks Made Billions… and Still Ate Dirt
When markets are ripping and everyone’s trading like it’s a sport, big banks usually look like geniuses. And technically they did: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, and Wells Fargo combined for $28.5B in Q4 profits and $123.2B for the year, up 5% vs. 2024.
But Wall Street wasn’t in the mood to clap. Even with strong results, a bunch of policy drama and bank-specific issues made investors treat this earnings season like a group project where nobody did their part.
Trump Turned Earnings Calls Into a Threat Assessment
The biggest cloud hanging over the sector was President Trump’s proposed one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates, which banks basically view as taking a chainsaw to a profit engine. Executives used earnings calls to publicly roast the idea, warning it would hit margins hard across consumer lending.
And the market listened. Instead of focusing on earnings beats, traders started pricing in the new risk: regulation that attacks APR income directly, right as financials were hoping for a smooth ride into 2026.
A Perfect Storm of “Wait, That’s Not Good”
Even outside politics, the banks had their own headaches. JPMorgan was weighed down by weaker investment banking activity, Wells Fargo got hit by a stagnant housing market dragging its mortgage business, and Citi posted a profit decline thanks to rising costs tied to its overhaul. Goldman’s revenue slipped too, partly tied to its Apple Card mess, while Bank of America had the most 2026 problem imaginable: its AI assistant Erica didn’t pull in enough new users.
The silver lining? Banks said they still aren’t seeing consumers crack, especially higher-income customers, which helped Goldman and Morgan Stanley come out looking cleaner than the pack. Bottom line: profits were strong, but this earnings season reminded everyone that policy risk is now part of the financials P/E.
CALENDAR
On The Horizon
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s calendar is a mix of “how’s the economy really doing?” and “how are banks holding up?” We’ll get industrial production + capacity utilization for December, plus the homebuilder confidence index to see whether housing is thawing or still stuck in the deep freeze.
On the earnings front, it’s a regional-bank-heavy lineup with PNC, Regions, State Street, and M&T Bank reporting. Also keep an ear out for Fed commentary from Susan Collins, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, and Philip Jefferson, because at this point every Fed mic is basically a market-moving event.
RESOURCES
The Federal Reserve Resource
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