Pfizer $PFE ( ▲ 1.1% ) ticked higher in premarket trading after reaffirming its 2025 guidance and offering investors a first look at what 2026 might bring. The headline takeaway: growth is slowing, and earnings are set to come in a bit lighter than Wall Street expected.
The drugmaker said it expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 to $3.00 in 2026. Analysts had been looking for about $3.05. Revenue is projected between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, with the $61 billion midpoint slightly below consensus and implying a roughly 2% decline from expected 2025 sales.
The Covid hangover still matters
At first glance, the guidance looks underwhelming. But Bloomberg Intelligence argues the story changes once Covid-related products are stripped out. On an ex-Covid basis, Pfizer’s initial 2026 sales outlook actually sits about 2% above consensus, implying underlying growth closer to 3% at the midpoint.
The drag comes from fading Covid revenue. Pfizer is modeling roughly $5 billion in Covid-related sales next year, versus the $6.7 billion analysts had penciled in. That roughly $1.5 billion shortfall versus 2025 explains most of the headline slowdown.
There is also some collateral damage. Bloomberg Intelligence notes the weaker Covid outlook is a negative readthrough for partners like BioNTech $BNTX ( ▲ 1.14% ) and rival Moderna $MRNA ( ▲ 8.17% ) , both of which remain more exposed to vaccine demand trends.
Rebuilding the pipeline, slowly
Pfizer is still very much in rebuild mode after the pandemic windfall faded. The company has been reshaping its pipeline through internal development and acquisitions, with several new products expected to come online in 2029 and 2030.
In a recent interview with Sherwood, CFO Dave Denton described 2025 as a turning point, calling it a “watershed moment where we set our pathway forward.” That framing helps explain why management seems willing to accept softer near-term numbers in exchange for longer-term stability.
Pfizer’s 2026 guidance is not exciting, but it may be better than it looks. Strip out Covid, and the core business appears steadier than the headline numbers suggest. Investors now have to decide whether patience through a few slower years is worth the promise of a more durable, post-Covid Pfizer on the other side.