Rivian $RIVN ( ▼ 9.39% ) just got hit with the Wall Street version of “nice story, now show me the numbers.”
Shares of the EV maker slid again Wednesday after UBS downgraded the stock to sell, warning that Rivian’s recent AI-driven momentum may have already peaked and expectations for its next big vehicle launch could be getting a little too optimistic.
UBS Hits Rivian With a Sell Rating
UBS cut Rivian to sell from neutral, with analyst Joseph Spak arguing that:
most of Rivian’s major AI-related catalysts are likely already out in the open
expectations for Rivian’s upcoming R2 launch are running too hot
The downgrade pushed the stock down about 3% in premarket trading.
UBS did raise its price target, though, from $13 to $15, which basically translates to: we still think it is going lower, just not as low as before.
Wolfe Research Piled On Earlier This Week
UBS is not alone.
Earlier this week, Wolfe Research also downgraded Rivian to sell from hold, arguing that the company’s self-driving updates will not meaningfully move the needle until later this year.
So the message from analysts is getting consistent: Rivian’s AI narrative might be real, but the timing of when it becomes financially meaningful is not as near-term as the market is currently treating it.
The Setup: Rivian Shares Ran After “AI Day”
Rivian has been riding a post-event bounce.
As of Tuesday’s close, Rivian shares were up 14.7% since its AI Day on December 11, a rally largely fueled by excitement around software, autonomy, and AI positioning.
But now analysts are essentially saying: that pop may have been the hype cycle, not the fundamentals.
Bottom line: Rivian $RIVN is getting downgraded because Wall Street thinks the “AI boost” has already been priced in, while the real payoff from autonomy and the R2 rollout could take longer than investors want to wait.