Wall Street is still bullish on Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 4.7% ) . It’s just getting a little more cautious about how the company is funding its bitcoin addiction.
TD Cowen analysts lowered their price target on Strategy to $440 from $500, even as bitcoin $BTC keeps climbing. The reason is simple: Strategy’s bitcoin accumulation is getting so aggressive that raising money through equity could dilute the upside.
“Audacious” buying, less BTC yield
TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza said Strategy didn’t just survive the latest bout of bitcoin price compression, it leaned into it.
In the past week, the company raised $1.25B through:
common stock issuance
variable-rate Stretch preferred stock
Then it used essentially all of it (all but $0.5M) to buy 13,627 bitcoin.
Vitanza now expects Strategy will buy 155,000 BTC, up from his previous estimate of 90,000 BTC. TD Cowen kept its Buy rating.
How TD Cowen says to play it
If you’re a long-term bitcoin believer (4+ years), Vitanza says focus on common shares, arguing that if bitcoin outperforms most assets, Strategy could outperform bitcoin itself.
If you’re more risk-averse but still want bitcoin exposure, he points to senior preferred STRF shares, calling them safer due to the value of Strategy’s BTC collateral.
He noted STRF shares are covered 6.4x by Strategy’s bitcoin holdings, meaning bitcoin would have to fall to roughly $14,000 before those shares could become impaired.
TD Cowen’s bitcoin roadmap
TD Cowen’s scenarios for bitcoin by December 26:
Base case: $177,000
Upside case: $225,000
Downside case: $60,000
So yes, they’re still bullish. They’re just acknowledging the ride can get violent.
The crowd thinks Strategy could hit 1M BTC
Bitcoin Treasuries’ 2025 Audience Survey found:
90% expect Strategy’s holdings to rise
nearly 50% think it could hold 1 million BTC in 2026 (vs. ~687,410 now)
12% expect 1.5 million BTC
6% expect 2 to 3 million BTC
Bottom line: Strategy is acting like it wants to become the world’s largest corporate bitcoin vault. TD Cowen still likes the story, but is warning that the way it’s being financed matters just as much as the bitcoin price.