Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 3.27% ) has just two days left to hit one of Elon Musk’s most repeated promises of 2025. Removing safety drivers from its Austin Robotaxi service by year-end. Right now, there is little evidence that is actually happening.
Musk has reiterated the goal multiple times over the past few months, saying in September that safety drivers would be gone by the end of the year, doubling down on the October earnings call, and then going even further at a December xAI hackathon by claiming fully unsupervised Robotaxis were only weeks away. With the calendar nearly flipped, public driverless rides still have not materialized.
Big promise, small rollout
So far, unsupervised Robotaxi rides in Austin appear limited to Tesla employees, friends of the company, and Musk himself. There has been no announcement of public access or confirmation that safety drivers have been removed across any meaningful portion of the fleet.
While the deadline itself is arbitrary, the milestone matters. A truly driverless Robotaxi service would be a major proof point for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software and a key pillar of the company’s long-term valuation narrative. For investors, this is not just about Austin. It is about whether Tesla can deliver on autonomy at scale.
Caution is creeping in
Tesla has hinted at why the timeline may be slipping. Musk acknowledged in October that the company is being extremely cautious, noting that even a single high-profile accident would dominate headlines. That caution looks increasingly warranted.
Of the roughly 30 Robotaxis operating in Austin, eight have been involved in crashes since June, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. That raises questions about safety on a per-vehicle basis, especially as Tesla pushes toward removing human oversight entirely.
Musk has also walked back other Robotaxi goals this year. Plans to expand to 8 to 10 cities replaced earlier ambitions to cover half the US population, and the target of 1,500 Robotaxis in Austin and the Bay Area by year-end has fallen well short, with roughly 160 vehicles currently in service.
This delay does not kill Tesla’s Robotaxi vision. But it reinforces a familiar pattern. The ambition is real. The timelines remain optimistic. And the gap between promise and execution is still doing most of the driving.