Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.03% ) may be heading into year-end with a weaker delivery print than investors are used to seeing.
A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates puts fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850 vehicles, which would represent a 15% decline from the 495,570 vehicles delivered in the same quarter last year. If realized, it would mark one of the sharpest year-over-year drops Tesla has posted in recent quarters.
Street expectations keep drifting lower
The full-year delivery estimate now sits around 1.6 million vehicles, implying an 8% decline from 2024 and the second straight annual drop for the EV maker. Notably, Tesla’s internal compilation is lower than broader consensus estimates tracked by Bloomberg and FactSet, both of which have been steadily revised down over the past month.
Market-implied odds from event contracts suggest traders are bracing for a softer outcome, with most positioning around deliveries landing between 410,000 and 420,000 for the quarter ending December.
Why this matters heading into the print
This is the first time Tesla has published its own compilation of analyst delivery estimates directly on its website, rather than limiting them to institutional distribution. The list includes projections from a wide range of major banks and research firms, underscoring how broadly expectations have cooled.
Actual delivery numbers are expected Friday, and given how tightly Tesla’s valuation is tied to growth assumptions, even modest misses or beats could carry outsized market impact.