Wall Street is getting more cautious on Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 3.27% ) heading into the final days of the quarter.
Analysts broadly expect Tesla’s fourth quarter deliveries to fall from last year, as the pull forward in demand tied to the now expired EV tax credit fades. With the reporting date approaching, those estimates have continued to drift lower.
Forecasts keep inching down
The current FactSet consensus calls for about 449,000 vehicles delivered in Q4, down roughly 9.5% from the 496,000 delivered a year ago and slightly below earlier December expectations. Bloomberg’s consensus has slipped further, now sitting closer to 445,000, compared with around 448,000 at the start of the month.
The downward revisions suggest analysts are recalibrating expectations as real time sales data rolls in and year end incentives lose their punch.
Prediction markets are even more skeptical
Traders are leaning more bearish than analysts. Event contract pricing implies fewer than 25% odds that Tesla delivers more than 430,000 vehicles this quarter, a notably lower bar than most Wall Street forecasts.
Tesla is expected to report official delivery figures in early January, which could set the tone for the stock as investors reassess demand heading into 2026 without the EV tax credit tailwind.