Tesla’s $TSLA ( ▲ 3.71% ) Robotaxi rollout in Austin is hitting a reality check. Since launching in June, Tesla’s 29 Robotaxis operating in the city have been involved in eight crashes, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data cited by Electrek. Most incidents involved property damage, with one minor injury reported. All of the crashes occurred while a safety monitor was sitting in the front seat.
Put differently, Tesla’s Robotaxis are crashing far more often than human drivers. Based on the mileage logged so far, the data implies roughly one crash every 40,000 miles. The average human driver in the US crashes about once every 500,000 miles.
The gap between marketing and math
That contrast matters because Tesla has long promoted Full Self Driving as significantly safer than humans. On its FSD page, Tesla claims vehicles using the system experience seven times fewer major and minor collisions. Safety researchers have pushed back on that framing, arguing the comparison relies on selective data and does not hold up under independent scrutiny.
Phil Koopman, a professor at Carnegie Mellon who studies autonomous vehicle safety, has previously said Tesla’s claims oversimplify complex real world driving risks. The Austin data appears to give critics more ammunition, especially as Tesla positions Robotaxi as a commercial service rather than a beta feature.
Removing the guardrails anyway
Despite the crash history, Tesla is accelerating its plans. Over the weekend, the company began testing two Robotaxis without safety monitors inside the vehicle. CEO Elon Musk has said Tesla aims to remove safety drivers from the Austin fleet entirely by the end of the year.
The tension is clear. Tesla is racing to prove autonomy at scale, while early data suggests its system still underperforms humans by a wide margin. Whether investors focus more on the long term vision or the short term safety record may determine how this next phase of the Robotaxi story is priced.