Fireplaces are on, inboxes are quiet, and markets are doing the annual tradition of pretending this year made sense. Let’s rewind 2025 and then squint toward 2026.
Global stocks had a monster year. The S&P 500 finished up roughly 16%, but the real flex came overseas. South Korea’s Kospi ripped about 64%, while Spain’s IBEX jumped around 46%, ending a long stretch of US-only dominance.
Hard assets stole the spotlight
Stocks weren’t the only winners. Investors stayed uneasy about geopolitics and trade, so they reached for protection. Gold climbed roughly 65%, silver surged about 128%, and copper rallied near 33% thanks to its role in clean energy and AI data centers. Oil went the other way, sliding close to 20% and landing among the year’s worst performers. Crypto didn’t help morale either, with bitcoin and ether both finishing the year well below their highs.
AI carried markets and the anxiety
US tech led again, powered by AI spending and productivity dreams, even as bubble fears grew louder. That tension rolls straight into 2026. Earnings expectations remain healthy, with Goldman Sachs forecasting profit growth of about 12% for the US, 16% for Asia excluding Japan, 14% for Europe, and 9% for Japan. Translation: fundamentals still look decent, even if valuations feel spicy.
What could move markets next year: AI remains the swing factor. Best case, investment keeps flowing, adoption spreads, and productivity gains show up in earnings. Worst case, spending slows and reality checks valuations. Rates matter too. Markets expect two Fed cuts in 2026, but deeper cuts could weaken the dollar and support gold, while helping smaller US companies and emerging markets. Japan is another wildcard. More tightening there could send ripples across global assets.
The calendar check
This week is basically holiday autopilot. A few US data points on Tuesday, some Japan numbers later in the week, and that’s it. US markets close early Wednesday and stay shut Thursday for Christmas. Trading resumes Friday, though enthusiasm is optional.
Bottom line. 2025 rewarded risk, punished complacency, and reminded everyone that diversification still matters, even when it feels unnecessary. 2026 looks set to test that lesson again.