United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 0.51% ) popped after hours Tuesday after beating Q4 earnings expectations and guiding Q1 profits above what Wall Street was modeling. In a market that’s been paranoid about consumer demand cracking, United basically delivered the opposite read: people are still flying, business travel looks alive, and premium customers are still spending.
This wasn’t a “beat on some fluke line item” quarter either.
United reported adjusted EPS of $3.10 vs $2.92 expected, with revenue at $15.4B roughly in line with estimates. Passenger revenue hit $13.93B, up nearly 5% year over year, which matters because it confirms the demand backdrop is still functioning even after a wild year of inflation and macro noise.
The number that actually mattered
Guidance is what pushed this stock.
United forecast full-year EPS between $12 and $14, bracketing the Street’s $13.04 estimate. For Q1, management guided EPS between $1.00 and $1.50, with the midpoint above expectations. That’s the kind of “we see the runway” confidence investors pay for, especially when everyone’s trying to figure out whether the economy is slowing or just reshuffling who gets to spend.
In other words: this wasn’t just a rearview mirror beat.
United also framed early 2026 demand as unusually strong, saying momentum has continued into the new year. Management said the week ending January 4th was the highest flown revenue week in United history, and the week ending January 11th was the highest ticketing week and the highest week for business sales in United history.
That is not what “soft landing” looks like.
The K-shaped economy is flying first class
One of the most telling details was where the growth came from.
Premium ticket revenue climbed 9% year over year, compared with 7% growth in basic economy. This is the K-shaped economy showing up in travel again, where higher-income consumers keep spending like nothing happened while everyone else gets more selective.
Delta literally showed the same pattern last week, when first-class and business revenue eclipsed main cabin for the first time. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a trend.
Bottom line
United didn’t just beat expectations. It gave the market a narrative it likes: demand is holding, premium is leading, and 2026 is starting with momentum.
And that’s why $UAL ripped.