Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 2.05% ) just got a policy tailwind.
What started as a Trump Truth Social post is now real paperwork: the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security updated its export license review policy for certain advanced semiconductors, outlining which chips can be shipped to China and under what conditions.
Translation: this is no longer just political noise. It is becoming formal export policy.
The Rule Change That Matters
Under the revised rules, chips below certain performance thresholds can now move from a “presumption of denial” to a case-by-case license review for exports to China or Macau.
The thresholds cited in the rule include:
total processing power less than 21,000
DRAM bandwidth less than 6,500 GB/s
That bucket reportedly includes:
Nvidia’s H200 $NVDA ( ▼ 2.05% )
AMD’s MI325X $AMD ( ▲ 0.12% )
So instead of exports being treated like an automatic no, they can now get reviewed individually if conditions are met.
The Two Key Conditions
The policy includes two major stipulations:
The chips must be readily available in the US for domestic buyers
Total shipments to China and Macau cannot exceed 50% of total end use by US customers
So the US is basically saying: sure, you can sell into China, but not in a way that starves domestic supply or makes China the primary customer.
No Mention of Trump’s “25% Proceeds” Idea
When Trump floated allowing these chip sales back on December 8, he also said 25% of proceeds would go to the US government.
That provision is not referenced in this Commerce Department export document.
The $54 Billion Question
Chinese buyers have reportedly ordered more than 2 million H200 chips, implying a potential sales channel of roughly $54 billion for Nvidia.
But there is still a major uncertainty: whether Chinese officials will actually allow imports at that scale while also trying to accelerate domestic chip development.
Bottom line: the US has now created a clearer policy pathway for Nvidia $NVDA and AMD $AMD to ship certain advanced AI chips to China. The only remaining question is how wide China actually lets that door open.