₿ Bitcoin $50K?

Good afternoon! Google Nest and Amazon-owned Ring just reminded everyone that your front porch might double as a data center. The FBI released Nest footage tied to an abduction case, even though the victim’s doorbell was reportedly disconnected and lacked a cloud subscription, raising eyebrows about how authorities pulled the clip in the first place.

Meanwhile, Ring aired a feel-good Super Bowl ad showing its AI scanning neighborhood cameras to find a lost dog, which critics say feels one firmware update away from full-blown surveillance. Ring insists its pet finder doesn’t track human biometrics, though its Familiar Faces feature can recognize people and its CEO has floated the idea of neighborhood cameras helping “zero out crime.” Still, viewers loved the puppy pitch, making it one of the game’s most-liked ads.

If you think the stock market has been volatile, take a look at Bitcoin $BTC. After sliding from its October all-time high, the crypto rebounded to nearly $96,000 in January before plunging to a 16-month low of $60,062. Now $70,000 has become the line it struggles to hold, and a major global bank says more turbulence may be ahead.

Wall Street Turns Cautious on Crypto

Standard Chartered, the London-based multinational bank that has become one of the more vocal institutional players in digital assets, just cut its 2026 year-end Bitcoin target to $100,000 from $150,000. The bank now expects Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 in the coming months before recovering. That follows an earlier downgrade from $300,000 to $150,000 late last year.

The bank cites a softer macro backdrop, fewer anticipated rate cuts, rising ETF outflows, and stalled crypto legislation in Washington. Average Bitcoin ETF holders are down roughly 25%, increasing the odds of continued selling pressure. Last week’s $3.2 billion realized loss marked the largest in Bitcoin’s history, highlighting how fragile sentiment has become.

Corporate Buying Is a One-Company Story

Even as price momentum fades, corporate accumulation remains concentrated. Strategy $MSTR accounted for about 97.5% of all public company Bitcoin purchases in January, adding 40,150 BTC and bringing total holdings to 712,647 BTC worth roughly $47.9 billion.

Asset manager Geode Capital boosted its stake in Strategy and initiated a position in American Bitcoin $ABTC. The takeaway is clear: while institutions debate macro headwinds and downside risk, corporate Bitcoin demand still runs largely through one balance sheet.

Nebius $NBIS shares wobbled after the neocloud provider posted fourth-quarter results that came in light, missing Wall Street on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The stock slid early before trimming losses as investors weighed short-term softness against a much bigger long-term AI buildout story.

A Quarter That Fell Short

Nebius reported Q4 revenue of $227.7 million, below expectations of $247.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA landed at $15 million, also shy of the $22.55 million analysts were modeling. The miss sparked fresh debate about how quickly AI-focused cloud players can scale profitably in an increasingly crowded market.

AI Capacity Ramps Ahead of Schedule

While the numbers disappointed, management focused on infrastructure momentum. CEO Arkady Volozh said Nebius exited 2025 with roughly 170 megawatts of active power capacity, well above its 100-megawatt target, and lifted year-end contracted capacity guidance to more than 3 gigawatts from a prior 2.5 gigawatts outlook.

The company expects to end the year with annualized run-rate revenue between $7 billion and $9 billion, signaling an aggressive expansion plan.

Cautious Outlook, Big Ambitions

CFO Dada Alonso guided for $3 billion to $3.4 billion in revenue this year, below analyst expectations near $4 billion. She described the forecast as prudent, a sign that management would rather underpromise while it scales.

Like many AI infrastructure players, Nebius faces the balancing act of funding rapid GPU deployment without overextending its balance sheet. Executives said about 60% or more of 2026 capital expenditures should be covered by operating cash flow, with most of that spending aimed squarely at GPUs, the real fuel of the AI arms race.

Tomorrow morning brings the main event: January’s CPI report. After a run of sticky prints and a blockbuster jobs number, traders will be parsing every decimal point to see whether inflation is cooling, stalling, or quietly reheating. The result could reshape rate-cut expectations before the market even finishes its first cup of coffee.

On the earnings front, it’s a mixed bag of auto parts, banks, burgers, uranium, and biotech. Advance Auto Parts $AAP, NatWest $NWG, Cameco $CCJ, Moderna $MRNA, and Wendy’s $WEN all report, offering fresh clues on consumer demand, nuclear momentum, vaccine pipelines, and whether fast-food value menus are still doing the heavy lifting.

Join our options subreddit ⚡️: https://www.reddit.com/r/optionstrading/

Join our discord community 💠: https://discord.gg/optionality

Check out our latest issues 🎯: 0ptionality.com