🤨 Google 100 Year Bond?

Good afternoon! The weight-loss drug turf war just got messier. Hims & Hers rolled out a $49 compounded version of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill, then pulled it days later after the FDA signaled it was ready to crack down. Investors got a quick reminder that moving fast in pharma can mean slamming into regulatory walls.

The fight centers on compounding rules, which allow custom formulations but not mass knockoffs of patented drugs. With GLP-1 shortages over and Novo’s oral pill protected by proprietary tech, regulators appear less willing to tolerate copycats. The result is a high-stakes standoff between big pharma defending patents and telehealth players chasing price-sensitive demand.

Alphabet $GOOGL is diving deep into the bond market, including plans to issue ultra-long 100-year debt, as it ramps up borrowing to fund its artificial intelligence buildout. Yes, a 100-year bond. Basically the financial version of “this is a future me problem.” The Google parent is selling bonds in dollars, British pounds, and Swiss francs, with maturities stretching from a quick few years to a full century in the UK portion of the deal.

The dollar portion alone is expected to total about $20 billion, up from earlier plans, making it one of the company’s largest bond sales ever. It also puts Alphabet in the rare club of companies confident enough to borrow money that won’t be due until your great-grandkids are arguing with AI about their homework.

AI Ambitions Come With a Big Price Tag

Alphabet’s borrowing push reflects the enormous capital demands of the AI arms race, where data centers are the new oil rigs and GPUs are the new gold. The company has signaled plans for as much as $185 billion in capital expenditures this year, largely tied to the server farms and computing muscle needed to keep its AI ambitions humming.

Not long ago, Alphabet carried relatively modest long-term debt. Now, like Oracle and other tech heavyweights, it is happily swiping the corporate credit card to make sure it has enough digital horsepower to compete in an AI world that waits for no one.

Investors Still Hungry for Tech Debt

Despite the firehose of issuance, investor demand has been strong. Corporate borrowing costs for highly rated companies remain near historic lows relative to US Treasurys, which means bond buyers are still lining up to lend Big Tech money for the long haul. Apparently, “lend to the people building the robot future” still screens well in portfolios.

So far, this tech borrowing spree has barely rippled the broader bond market. But with AI spending accelerating across the sector, Alphabet’s century bond is a clear signal that this buildout is not just big. It is the kind of project you finance when you plan to be relevant long after today’s buzzwords are antique.

Bitcoin $BTC is back under pressure, and the ripple effect is hitting crypto-linked equities. After a brief surge late last week, the cryptocurrency slipped back under the $70,000 mark, pulling down stocks tied to the digital asset trade in early action.

Names like Strategy $MSTR, MARA Holdings $MARA, Riot Platforms $RIOT, and Coinbase $COIN moved lower as traders reacted to the renewed weakness in crypto prices.

From Big Bounce to Fast Retreat

The reversal comes just days after Bitcoin posted its biggest daily gain since March 2023, jumping more than 11% on Friday. Prices edged higher over the weekend before momentum flipped overnight, reminding investors how quickly optimism in crypto can turn into another round of selling.

That kind of back-and-forth has become the norm, with sharp rallies often fading just as fast as they appear.

Volatility Gap Widens

Crypto’s mood swings are also showing up in volatility data. Short-term price moves in the iShares Bitcoin Trust $IBIT have been running far hotter than those in the broader stock market, with its 20-day realized volatility well above that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY.

The widening gap highlights how much more turbulent crypto trading remains compared with traditional equities. For investors, the pattern is familiar: when Bitcoin stumbles, stocks tied to the ecosystem usually feel it too.

Wall Street gets a pulse check on Main Street today with the latest NFIB small business optimism index, plus a long-awaited look at December retail sales. Investors will also be tuning in as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan take the mic, hunting for any clues on where rates might head next.

It’s a packed earnings slate too, with results rolling in from big consumer names, healthcare giants, banks, travel players, and tech firms. From Coca-Cola and Ford to Spotify, Robinhood, and Cloudflare, the reports should offer a broad read on how everything from ad spending to travel demand and enterprise software budgets is holding up.

Join our options subreddit ⚡️: https://www.reddit.com/r/optionstrading/

Join our discord community 💠: https://discord.gg/optionality

Check out our latest issues 🎯: 0ptionality.com