Good afternoon! Someone check the world’s panic meter, because the Doomsday Clock just moved to 85 seconds before midnight, the closest humanity has ever been to symbolic disaster. The clock, set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, is basically a vibe check on how close we are to global catastrophe, and the vibe right now is not great.
The group points to rising nuclear tensions, worsening climate risks, and fast-moving technologies as the main accelerants. They also warned that AI is pouring gasoline on the misinformation fire, making it harder for societies to deal with every other major threat at the same time. Since 1947, the clock has only moved backward eight times but forward 18, and this latest tick is the most ominous yet.
MARKETS
The S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,000 for the first time ever, lifted by strong chip earnings and fresh optimism around Nvidia, before giving up gains later in the session. Tech outperformed with the Nasdaq 100 higher, while the Russell 2000 lagged as investors waited on major earnings.
Oil hit a four month high after President Trump warned Iran that a massive armada is on the way, adding geopolitical heat to markets. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady as expected, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump may soon reveal his pick to replace Jerome Powell.
STOCKS
Winners & Losers
What’s up 📈
Seagate jumped 19.14%, Western Digital rose 10.7%, SanDisk gained 9.6%, and Micron Technology rallied 6.1% after analysts highlighted durable long term demand for data storage. $STX $WDC $SNDK $MU
Intel climbed 11.04% on reports that Nvidia and Apple may shift some chip production away from TSMC and toward Intel. $INTC
AT&T added 4.65% after a Q4 earnings beat and a full year outlook that topped expectations. $T
Texas Instruments advanced 9.94% after issuing stronger than expected Q1 guidance. $TXN
Stride surged 14.25% after beating estimates and raising its full year revenue outlook on strong enrollment demand. $LRN
What’s down 📉
Starbucks slipped 0.59% after missing fiscal Q1 earnings, even though traffic grew for the first time in two years. $SBUX
ASML fell 2.18% after reversing earlier gains despite posting record orders and strong 2026 AI driven guidance. $ASML
Amphenol dropped 12.2% after earnings as investors took profits following a massive run over the past year. $APH
VF Corporation declined 5.82% despite delivering solid fiscal third quarter results. $VFC
Textron slid 7.9% after beating Q4 estimates but issuing soft forward guidance. $TXT
Qorvo fell 6.8% after topping earnings but disappointing on outlook, dragging Skyworks Solutions down 7.94% as well. $QRVO $SWKS
FEDERAL RESERVE
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady as Powell Signals Patience on Cuts
The Federal Reserve hit pause to start the year, keeping interest rates locked in a 3.5% to 3.75% range and making it clear the easy-money phase is on hold. Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is still on firm footing, with steady job data and inflation that has cooled from its peak but remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
That decision marks the first meeting without a cut since last summer, after three straight reductions late last year. Investors had been hoping the rate-cut momentum would continue, but the Fed is now signaling it wants more proof that inflation is truly headed lower before easing again.
The Rate Cut Party Just Got a Bouncer
Not everyone agreed with the pause. Two Fed governors voted against the decision and pushed for another quarter-point cut, showing cracks in what is usually a carefully aligned committee. Their dissent also lands at a politically charged moment, with Powell’s term as chair ending in May and speculation building about who might take the seat next.
Powell emphasized that decisions will be made meeting by meeting, based on data rather than outside pressure. He also doubled down on the importance of Fed independence, a subtle reminder that the central bank does not want to be pulled into political crossfire.
Stuck Between Sticky Prices and Softening Jobs
The Fed is balancing two stubborn forces. Inflation has cooled but is not fully back to target, while the labor market is slowing without falling apart. That leaves policymakers cautious about cutting too soon and risking another inflation flare-up.
Markets now expect rates to stay on hold for at least the next few meetings, with any future cuts likely to come slowly. For now, the Fed’s stance is clear: the economy can handle higher rates a bit longer, so patience wins.
NEWS
Market Movements
🤖 Anthropic Expands Fundraise to $20B at $350B Valuation: Round was reportedly 5–6x oversubscribed, letting Anthropic double the raise from $10B. Enterprise adoption of Claude and momentum for Claude Code are driving the “top OpenAI challenger” narrative.
💾 Seagate Beats Q2 Estimates and Guides Higher: Revenue $2.825B and adj EPS $3.11 topped expectations, then Q3 guide came in well above consensus on both EPS and sales. Market is reading it as AI data centers pulling more demand into legacy storage, with $WDC moving in sympathy. $STX $WDC
📈 Texas Instruments Surges on Strong Q1 Guide: Q4 was slightly soft, but Q1 revenue and EPS guidance beat the Street, and management sounded notably more upbeat on industrial demand recovery. Data center is still a small slice but grew fast, adding an AI tailwind on top of the cyclical rebound story. $TXN
🧠 ASML Rallies on Revenue Beat and Blowout Bookings: Q4 sales beat while EPS and margins were a touch lighter, but 2026 revenue guidance impressed and Q1 sales guide came in above Street views. Bookings of €13.2B was the headline, signaling EUV demand remains a bottleneck as AI capex stays hot. $ASML
🇨🇳 Nvidia Pops as China Approves H200 Purchases: Reuters says ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent were approved to buy over 400,000 H200s, roughly an $11B revenue opportunity using prior pricing. Conditions are still being finalized and supply plus export limits could cap shipments, but it eases “China shutoff” fears. $NVDA $BABA $TCEHY
✂️ Amazon Cuts Another 16,000 Jobs: Amazon is trimming 16,000 more roles after 14,000 cuts in October, bringing reductions to about 30,000 in a short window. Management framed it as flattening layers and reducing bureaucracy, not an AI-driven headcount reset. $AMZN
🧩 Micron Jumps After SK Hynix Posts Record Results: SK Hynix printed record revenue and profit driven by HBM demand, reinforcing the AI memory boom for the big three memory makers. Read-through lifted $MU and also boosted storage names as “AI creates data that still needs storing” stays the theme. $MU $WDC $SNDK
🏥 Elevance Beats Earnings but 2026 Guidance Disappoints: Quarterly EPS beat, revenue missed, and medical cost ratio was roughly in line, but 2026 EPS guidance was far below what analysts modeled. Medicare Advantage pressure is rising and management expects MA membership to fall sharply, calling 2026 a trough year. $ELV
🔒 Meta Tests Premium Subscriptions Across Its Apps: Meta plans to trial paid tiers on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, bundling extra features like expanded AI tools while keeping core experiences free. It is a new monetization lever for a business still overwhelmingly ad-driven. $META
🏭 Intel Jumps on Nvidia Manufacturing Rumor and Insider Buy: Report says Intel could handle part of Nvidia’s future GPU packaging and I/O die work for a 2028 generation, while TSMC keeps core compute production. Separately, Intel’s CFO bought about $250K of stock after a sharp selloff, boosting sentiment. $INTC $NVDA $TSM
☕ Starbucks Spikes on Same-Store Sales Beat and New Outlook: Revenue beat and same-store sales rose 4 percent, well above expectations, though EPS was slightly light. Management reinstated guidance and called China a standout, helping investors buy into the turnaround progress. $SBUX
⚡ GE Vernova Slips on Profit Miss Despite Big Orders: Revenue beat and 2026 sales guidance topped Street estimates, plus orders came in far above expectations. EBITDA missed due to wind losses, so the stock dipped even as the AI power demand backdrop remains intact. $GEV
🧰 Corning Beats Q4 and Gives Solid Q1 Guide After Meta Deal: Core EPS and sales came in slightly above expectations, and Q1 guidance roughly bracketed Street estimates with a modest EPS edge at the midpoint. Stock cooled after ripping on its up to $6B Meta fiber optics deal, but AI data center networking stays the catalyst. $GLW $META
🥇 Bitcoin Lags Gold and Silver, but the Zoom-Out Still Looks Fine: BTC has struggled to reclaim $90K while metals rally, making sentiment feel worse even if the drawdown is milder than past cycles at similar points. The argument from analysts is simple, short-term leadership rotates, but multi-year performance still favors BTC versus many benchmarks. $BTC
🏦 Ripple Launches Corporate Treasury Platform: Ripple rolled out a treasury product combining its rails with GTreasury software to manage cash, crypto, RLUSD, and XRP with faster settlement and reporting. It lines up with Ripple’s push deeper into regulated financial infrastructure and corporate finance workflows. $XRP
🚗 Carvana Drops After Gotham City Research Short Report: Short seller alleges Carvana overstated 2023–2024 earnings by over $1B and is more dependent on affiliated lenders than investors realize. Carvana has not immediately responded, and the stock sold off hard on the claims and implied regulatory risk. $CVNA
📺 Paramount+ Eyes TikTok-Style Short-Form Feed: Leaked documents suggest Paramount+ is prioritizing short-form, user-generated style video and a personalized mobile feed. It is the latest sign streamers are copying social video mechanics to fight for attention against Shorts and Reels. $PSKY $DIS $NFLX $GOOGL
AI
Chip Equipment Stocks Seen as Next AI Bottleneck Play
The AI gold rush has a pattern. First it was GPUs, then power, then memory. Now Wall Street thinks the next traffic jam could hit the companies that make the machines used to build chips. These semiconductor equipment firms, often called semicaps, are suddenly front and center as investors look for the next supply squeeze.
The Quiet Kings Behind the Chips
Companies like Applied Materials $AMAT, ASML $ASML, Lam Research $LRCX, Tokyo Electron $TOELY, and KLA $KLAC do not design flashy AI chips. They build the ultra-precise tools that turn raw silicon into those chips. And after years of cautious spending from chipmakers burned by past boom and bust cycles, the industry may have underbuilt capacity.
Now demand is roaring back. AI servers need massive volumes of advanced chips, and manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM, Intel $INTC, and SK Hynix are signaling they will have to ramp capital spending to add more clean-room space and tool capacity. Recent order surges at ASML only add to the idea that the equipment cycle is heating up again.
Capex Is Waking Up
Wall Street analysts are increasingly calling for higher wafer fabrication equipment spending over the next couple of years. Research notes from multiple firms point to AI infrastructure buildouts as a key driver, with chipmakers racing to avoid being the next bottleneck in the supply chain.
That spending shift matters because equipment orders tend to come in waves. Once manufacturers commit to expanding, they often buy large batches of tools at once, which can create powerful upcycles for semicap revenue and profits.
Hot Trade, Hotter Valuations
The catch is that investors are not exactly early. Many semicap stocks have already had huge runs, pushing valuations well above historical norms. Some market watchers warn that a chunk of the next cycle may already be priced in.
Still, AI has repeatedly shown that bottleneck trades can stretch far longer than expected. Energy and memory stocks looked expensive before their last big legs higher too. If chipmaking capacity becomes the next true constraint, semicaps could remain a favored way to play deeper layers of the AI buildout.
For now, the Street’s message is simple. As long as AI spending keeps flowing, the companies that make the tools behind the chips may be next in line for more upside.
CALENDAR
On The Horizon
Tomorrow
Thursday brings a stack of fresh economic data, including the latest read on the US trade deficit, new factory order numbers, wholesale inventory trends, and weekly jobless claims. Together, they will help investors gauge how much momentum the economy actually has heading into the new year.
It is also a heavyweight day for corporate results, with updates due from Apple $AAPL, Visa $V, Mastercard $MA, Caterpillar $CAT, Honeywell $HON, Blackstone $BX, Thermo Fisher $TMO, Lockheed Martin $LMT, Comcast $CMCSA, and Nokia $NOK, among many others across tech, industrials, healthcare, and finance.
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